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> Much more plausible ... I disagree about stratification to a certain extent, that is, I only see 2 groups emerging. Here's my thinking. Highly paid service jobs will remain unscathed only in so far as they have regulatory barriers to entry i.e. someone has to have gone to medical school, be licensed by a community of medical professionals, etc, in order to practice medicine. This applies to lawyers, doctors, psychiatrist, teachers, professors, architects but notably not to software engineers, carpenters, plumbers, etc (note: this split depends on country specific laws). Those fields that can simply block out or control the rate of progress and labor supply will see the least disruption in terms of wages. Also note, that most of these "future stable" fields are occupations which are tied closest to governmental law and regulation and are occupied by the upper echelon of society. Occupations such as mail carrier, brick mason, railroad operator, gas station operator, steel worker, etc. which are currently well-paying middle class jobs, will evaporate over the coming decades in the face of innovation and automation due in large part to the absence of the ability to set arbitrary barriers to entry. Within this "unprotected" category of jobs, i.e. those which cannot write regulations in law to protect themselves, those will persist for which it is simply more economical to maintain the status quo. Perhaps, something like a barista, or a part-time McDonalds worker or something of that sort. For these job categories, even though it may be feasible to have an android pour peoples coffee and bring it to their table and ask them about their day, people may dislike the service and/or the cost of producing such a product may simply be too high for that particular occupation. This, I think, is how we should look at which job categories are more future / AI secure or not. Its at least the prediction metric I would use. |