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by rmrm 2972 days ago
I guess bonds, if inflation expectations are constant, as they will drop if expectations rise as you say. Avoiding bonds would be a mechanism to avoid rising expectations.

So I think this is technically correct, if things are static, but does not protect against rising rates, which I guess it my question.

1 comments

Bonds are priced according to the market's best expectations of how much inflation there will be.

If there is more inflation than the market expects than you will lose money. But, are you smarter than the market?

Otherwise, if you only care about avoiding inflation just buy anything that is not a direct cash equivalent. Gold, iron, rocks, stocks, vespene gas, whatever.

Interest rates fell for what, 40 years, creating the great bond bull market? Things can tend to trend, not happen all at once and discretely. Maybe that means the market was horribly horribly wrong for 40 years, I dont know.