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by thousandautumns
2982 days ago
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> If a null hypothesis is invariably true, it's impossible to reject it. Which means the scientists will not be able to find any statistic or data to support any of their bad, original hypotheses. Not 5%, not 0.005%, nor whatever. You've never heard of random error? Just because a null hypothesis may accurately describe a data generating phenomenon doesn't mean you will never get samples that aren't skewed enough to have a significant effect. Pretend we are comparing neighborhoods. Say the true age of the people in my neighborhood and your neighborhood is actually equal, at 40, but my alternative hypothesis is that the average age of residents in my neighborhood is younger than yours (thus the null is they are the same, which unbeknownst to me is the truth). You are claiming that no matter how many random samples of residents of our two neighborhoods we take, they will always be close enough in average age that we will always fail to reject the null. That's obviously not the case. In fact, by definition, the p-value is stating that we should expect 5% of samples we draw to indicate my neighborhood is significantly younger than yours, even though that isn't true, solely due to the randomness of our samples. That's literally the purpose of the p-value. |
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