[itchytrotters]

Bruce Schneier has pointed out the implications of the base rate fallacy for various security systems for a long time now:

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/03/data_mining_f...

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/07/terrorists_da...

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2012/05/criminal_inte...