[kenjackson]

I'm not sure where I said it was easy, or implied it. I'm not even sure what you think I believe is easy.

In any case, my point is simply that exclusivity of a phone OS to a single carrier IMO is not a net win.

And my additional point was that MS is getting most of the win that Apple has today, but is applying it across all carriers.

I think Apple ending the exclusivity will be a great thing. You seem to imply that I'd think otherwise.

[nanairo]

But you are comparing apple and oranges. You are comparing Microsoft today with Apple in 2007. There were a _lot_ of people doubting Apple would succeed if they ever tried to move into the phone market. And carriers (at least in the US) had a solid grip on the market.

Nowadays the situation is completely different. Apple had showed that their vision of smartphone is successful: Microsoft (or Google) don't need to prove that anymore. Also carriers have lost a bit of their power, and are more afraid of ending up with a world controlled by one company than before.

The point of the exclusivity is that if it runs out in a few months as many expect, that's pretty much when the new MS phones will come out (give or take a couple of months). So I don't see what damage Apple made.

[kenjackson]

No, I'm comparing Apple today with MS today. What Apple did in 2007 was great. But the exclusivity that exists to this day, is not, IMO.

I never said that Apple damaged the market. Someone made this comment, "Apple is going to exert the power to control the carriers. Apple is about the only company that can, or will, exert this kind of power."

I said I thought the opposite. That the power to control the carriers will be stronger with Google and MS. Largely because they will be on all the carriers, and while imposing looser requirements on the carriers, capture the core requirements (again, MS in particular -- Google less so).

Lets be clear. I'm not saying Apple has done anything bad, but I do think that their impact has been weakened with their exclusivity for four years on ATT. I find it hard to believe that Apple couldn't have negotiated a shorter exclusivity deal, while losing almost nothing.

[nanairo]

Oh, I definitely agree that their impact was weakened by the exclusivity... for a start because Android would have been less popular.

My guess (and it's purely that) is that the deal was extended (maybe one year... dunno) in exchange for the iPad deal. Not a great move, I agree.

Finally, I agree MS stands in a strong position too. But not Google. As long as Android is open, and as long as there are many manufacturers of Android phones, you have a situation where the very few phone companies have an oligopoly on demand and hence have the upperhand: if Motorola doesn't play along, they can go to Sony, or HTC, or Samsung, or LG... and others are coming up soon. Then Motorola can either lose a lucrative business without little harm to the carrier or is forced to oblige.

That said if one particular brand would become the most appealing for some reason, that company would definitely regain some bargaining power.