It underscores how little you should trust your own numbers (or numbers from strangers on the internet). Forget one small factor and the whole picture shifts a lot.
> how little you should trust your own numbers. Forget one small factor and the whole picture shifts a lot.
Though you should at least try run the numbers. Maybe you will forget an important detail but if you just go with your gut or an insufficiently specific recommendation from elsewhere you will likely miss many more important details.
The trick is to do some research first, and if possible have someone else look over your thoughts to see if they can spot an important omission. Be particularly careful if the sums add up in a way that closely confirms your original idea - your analysis might be unintentionally biased by subconscious filtering.
> or numbers from strangers on the internet
That is definitely something to be wary of. Too many people base decisions on simple advice without checking that the advice is even relevant to their specific situation. I've seen people in the UK dump figures into US targeted calculators with the thought that "the $<->£ is the same for every figure so it will all work out OK" without thinking that our tax regimes and other factors are quite different in ways that can have a large impact.
Exactly - so if I buy a Bay Area house, what numbers do I put in? Will it go up 10% a year, or down 10% a year? I can see either happening. Certainly doesn't have much to do with inflation.
Though you should at least try run the numbers. Maybe you will forget an important detail but if you just go with your gut or an insufficiently specific recommendation from elsewhere you will likely miss many more important details.
The trick is to do some research first, and if possible have someone else look over your thoughts to see if they can spot an important omission. Be particularly careful if the sums add up in a way that closely confirms your original idea - your analysis might be unintentionally biased by subconscious filtering.
> or numbers from strangers on the internet
That is definitely something to be wary of. Too many people base decisions on simple advice without checking that the advice is even relevant to their specific situation. I've seen people in the UK dump figures into US targeted calculators with the thought that "the $<->£ is the same for every figure so it will all work out OK" without thinking that our tax regimes and other factors are quite different in ways that can have a large impact.