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by adventured
2977 days ago
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Nothing. Replacing Facebook is a perpetual tall poppy fantasy; that was the case before the privacy abuses of the last several years. I watched the exact same thing obsess the tech world and Silicon Valley in particular, for over a decade, regarding Windows. Windows never got replaced, instead the ground changed under it, an inflection opened up new opportunities (which created nothing more than a duopoly in iOS + Android for two other giants). That's exactly what will happen with Facebook. Five or six years from now, they'll be doing a hundred billion dollars in sales, they'll be larger than ever before, and more profitable than ever before. Some day the ground will shift under them, opening up a big opportunity, and it'll require a technology shift. Then we'll probably just get another tech giant or three dominating the new thing, rinse and repeat. This is all extraordinarily predictable. The easiest thing of all to predict? Decentralization will perpetually continue to fail as a mass-consumer premise. Decentralization is the ultimate tech fantasy, and the greatest demonstration that engineers very often have a poor understanding of typical consumers. Nothing has had more thought & effort put into it, with fewer results to show for it, than decentralization for mass consumer products/services, over the last 15-20 years. |
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