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by nonbel
2984 days ago
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There are multiple inference levels here. First, there is the statistical level, at which we are drawing some conclusion about the model parameter. This may work even for a misspecified model. Then there is the level at which you want to draw some conclusion about reality, call it the "scientific level". If the model is misspecified, the parameters/coefficients may or may not correspond to the thing of interest. Perhaps the model is a close enough approximation for those values to be meaningful, perhaps not... I think it is the second ("scientific level") of inference that most people are concerned about. The rigor of the proofs/theorems that may work at the statistical level does not extend to the scientific level. Afaict, the majority of erroneous inference occurs at the scientific level and statistical error/uncertainty is a sort of minimum error/uncertainty. |
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