Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by nonbel 2984 days ago
There are multiple inference levels here.

First, there is the statistical level, at which we are drawing some conclusion about the model parameter. This may work even for a misspecified model.

Then there is the level at which you want to draw some conclusion about reality, call it the "scientific level". If the model is misspecified, the parameters/coefficients may or may not correspond to the thing of interest. Perhaps the model is a close enough approximation for those values to be meaningful, perhaps not...

I think it is the second ("scientific level") of inference that most people are concerned about. The rigor of the proofs/theorems that may work at the statistical level does not extend to the scientific level.

Afaict, the majority of erroneous inference occurs at the scientific level and statistical error/uncertainty is a sort of minimum error/uncertainty.