[AnthonyMouse]

> Maybe. But maybe there's also something wrong with expecting that much. Somehow Sidney Farber didn't decide that he was going to charge the families of kids with ALL the actuarial value of the remainder of their lives.

The problem is this. Suppose the total value of a cure is two billion dollars but it takes a billion to do the research. You can say they should get, say, 1.2 billion instead of the entire two, but that isn't actually that much different, and if you make it 0.8 billion then the research doesn't happen. And it's really hard to calibrate that sort of thing -- you can't just look at the amount the research actually cost because that doesn't take into account the risk of failure, which you have to compensate for or you won't get the investment.

Which is also where the apparent inequity comes from, when a million dollars in research produces a billion dollars in profit. But that's usually because it was a thousand to one shot to begin with. If it wasn't, why has it taken this long for someone to take ownership of that huge pile of risk-free money, instead of the cure being discovered 30 years ago and already being out of patent?

[fricat1ve]

>If it wasn't, why has it taken this long for someone to take ownership of that huge pile of risk-free money

Maybe because no one thought of it before?

The picture you're painting is fine if you're evaluating a handful of candidate molecules each with, you'd guess, a 5% chance of having the right PK profile or something.

But for major breakthroughs, there are "unknown unknowns" that make it impossible to estimate that likelihood. It's nice to think that, if you let the full value be captured, it would incentivize more people to pursue one-in-a-million "lottery ticket" cures, but it just doesn't work that way. They're not lottery tickets if they have incalculable odds.

For the most part, the difference between management and cures is in this latter category. I.e. we don't have a cure because we just don't know how to do it, not because we were too cheap to invest in the biochemical trench warfare to find the right molecule.

[AnthonyMouse]

> They're not lottery tickets if they have incalculable odds.

The odds aren't incalculable. They might have wide error margins, but that's hardly the same thing.

> we don't have a cure because we just don't know how to do it, not because we were too cheap to invest in the biochemical trench warfare to find the right molecule.

You're thinking about this at the wrong level of abstraction. It isn't a matter of having some candidate molecules and we just need some monkeys on typewriters or a huge bank of supercomputers to test them all.

It's that if you want a cure for cancer, you have to pay scientists to look for it. Not knowing where to look is not the same as not knowing how to look. The fact that it's hard is the reason it's expensive.

[fricat1ve]

> if you want a cure for cancer, you have to pay scientists to look for it.

We do that. It's a two-tier system where the public pays for the science and the companies fish ideas from the science to make into medicines.

>The fact that it's hard is the reason it's expensive.

No, the reason it is expensive is because we've signalled that we are willing to pay large amounts of money, essentially regardless of the actual benefit extended by the state of the art treatment. Even if the state of the science doesn't have much to offer in the way of a cure, you can count on the private sector to make drugs that push the envelope of what we are willing to pay.

But because the job that the private sector does is not the "rate limiting step" as it were, dumping more cash on them is just wasted money.

[AnthonyMouse]

> No, the reason it is expensive is because we've signalled that we are willing to pay large amounts of money, essentially regardless of the actual benefit extended by the state of the art treatment.

Not the cost of medicine, the cost of medical research. If finding a cure for cancer wasn't expensive then either we've been doing something very wrong or we should have found it already.

And if it's expensive then the reward has to meet the expense in order to get someone to do it.