[int3]

> (paradoxically, if, a week later they say they need another 5 million, giving them that at that time is OK as long as you think you still have ½% chance of getting all your money back, but you shouldn’t give them 15 million up front when you thought you had a 1% chance)

No paradox here... the evaluation of the situation in the first week should be [EV of getting all your money back with the 10M investment + (negative) EV of needing to put in more money later to keep the company afloat].