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by mtnGoat 2999 days ago
isn't most investing speculative though?
3 comments

Not really, except in a sense that's pretty close to wordplay.

Investing is about looking at the fundamental value of something, its economic productivity. Speculation is betting on fluctuation. If I put my retirement money in an index fund, I am indeed thinking about the future in a way that could be called speculative. But in the financial world, speculation has a specific meaning that is distinct from investing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

All financial instruments are speculative. The fundamental value is only ever part of the question, because fundamental value divorced from resale value would likely never pay itself off for most investments in most people's lifetimes. Even Warren Buffet speculates on price, because he takes a bet on fundamental value relative to market value.

You think cryptocurrencies are not investments because they aren't economic producers. Cryptocurrency is not an economic producer, because currency is not an economic producer. It is an economic enabler though, and currencies have intrinsic values related to their various properties that affect how they enable economies: backed by gold, backed by government trust, backed by cryptography, identity and trust in the controller of money supply, anonymity vs transparent identity, transaction speed, liquidity, legal legitimacy, etc.

The best historic analogy for the investment profile of the cryptocurrency craze right now is war bonds. With war bonds, you are investing in the success of the nation issuing them. Failure of that nation means default. Success means that bond is convertible to national currency that has a liquid marketable value. Right now the utility of those cryptocurrencies is low: transaction volumes are low, liquidity is low, acceptance is low. But by speculating on cryptocurrencies, you are betting on their future utility, with the caveat that most will likely fail and be completely worthless in the long run. Yes, it's speculative...just like every other investment out there.

Yes, that's the sense that's close to wordplay.

Betting on any currency is speculation, not investment. And although currencies may be useful, that doesn't mean that buying more currency than you need for practical purposes is going to turn you a profit.

Indeed, the opposite often applies. A good currency has low volatilty and is easily exchanged for other things. The US dollar has been a great currency for decades, but buying lots of dollars wouldn't have made you rich, because dollars are not productive assets. They just sit there. No serious investor parks lots of money for long periods in currencies; it's better to buy productive assets (e.g., stock index shares) in that currency.

If Bitcoin ever becomes a good currency, it too will be a bad choice for speculation. A financial company with Bitcoin infrastructure might be a good investment. But Bitcoin's high volatility, which makes it great for speculation, will have to vanish if it ever becomes a decent currency.

Normally there's some sort of external factor that you're indirectly speculating on -- the success (or failure) of the company issuing a stock, for instance. With most cryptocurrencies, though, there's no economic fundamental underlying the price; speculation is the primary (and, in many cases, only) thing controlling the price.

The fact that cryptocurrency markets aren't regulated -- and, in fact, are frequently manipulated by schemes that would be illegal in any other marketplace -- doesn't help, either...

In case of the top ~100 cryptos/tokens, there is usually an external factor.

Besides that, the distinction between speculation and investment is not as clear as you say.

By your definition, there is no such thing as "investing in art" - only "art speculation".

The definition of investment/speculation I prefer is whether the asset purchase is based on economic reasoning, or emotional reasoning. The latter is people buying "because the charts are growing", or "because the market is hot but will be hotter", or using technical analysis voodoo.

If you have a basis for your purchase price that is not connected to historic price charts, you're an investor.

You can't just make up new meanings for words. Speculation is a defined thing in the financial world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation

Investing in art happens all the time. Movie companies do it reliably when they create or purchase films with the hope of generating both economic value (that is, enjoyment) and long-term profit. Music companies do it when they give a band money to make a new album. Touring art shows could also be seen as an investment where they acquire assets and then generate value (that is, viewership) with them. But yes, buying and storing paintings in hopes they will be worth more later is speculation.

Interesting question. I'd assume that it's not and that the Warren Buffets, pension funds and value investors outnumber significantly the day traders (which are trying to profit off the former) and speculators.