[s1dechnl]

My framing is that it could exist and the broad majority would be none the wiser. My framing also is that a number of groups/individuals have likely exposed enough to cause people to question as to what stage they are in their development but instead receive the common : yeah sure buddy, let me know when you have a demo. So, ultimately it will indeed 'come out of nowhere' because society and many individuals aren't conditions to or even have their 'hearing' tuned to be aware of its coming. The safety discussion is a mute topic of discussion in this context as its baked into development and intelligence. There's discussion boards all over the internet, TED talks, economic forums, AI panes, etc.. It's all the same song and dance save for the many groups that are of no mention. Even as the same voices and idols of note continue to center on the same fundamental approaches that don't seem to be going anywhere fast, no one listens to groups/individuals thinking different or trying a fundamentally new approach. Hinton and other prominent figures even come to state that the real amazing development will come from someone who scraps everything, starts from scratch and reproaches things in a fundamentally new approach. No media outlets. No funding groups (even though they say they're looking for something amazing/new). No commentators. No lay person looks to see if there are any such people.

In such an environment, AGI could very well already be established and the reason being is that no on by and large is looking for its establishment. The focus instead is on a handful of prominent names that are well capitalized. So, the majority and anyone of such thinking indeed (misses) the event.