[sosborn]

It really isn't though. What happened after this incident has no bearing on what happened before the incident.

Does his status provide a motive for a false accusation? Sure, but that is different from evidence.

[loup-vaillant]

No it isn't different, you failed Bayesian. Evidence is not causality, it can flow backwards in time.

For instance, a mammography doesn't give you cancer. But it can detect one, and thus give you evidence that you had cancer in the first place.