[toomuchtodo]

Optimism isn’t delusional. They’re already making ~192k vehicles a year at their current 3/S/X production rate (which will only increase).

You would have to be malicious or ignorant to think that can’t be scaled up to NUMMIs previous 350k/year run rate in the next 3-12 months.

Disclosure: TSLA shareholder

[danso]

2017 was its best year, and it produced ~101,000 vehicles: https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/3/16846860/tesla-2017-delive...

[Robotbeat]

I believe he was referring to the NUMMI factory pre-Tesla, which produced about 6000 cars and trucks per week at its peak.

It does seem like Tesla will soon (3-12 months) eclipse that record.

[toomuchtodo]

Correct! And that NUMMI run rate Toyota achieved was (supposedly) only 60% of the facility's total manufacturing capacity. It appears to be entirely realistic for Tesla to meet their 500k/year vehicle production rate at NUMMI.

[Robotbeat]

Indeed. They originally planned to make 500,000 Teslas (including the Model 3) per year by 2020, and they'll almost certainly meet that.

Aim for the Moon, and if you miss, you may still reach Mars.

[cjhopman]

2020? Just last year they said they'd do it by 2018.

[Robotbeat]

Right, they ramped up expectations ridiculously high with the Model 3 unveiling, but before that and when Gigafactory was just being talked about (before official construction), they were talking about 500,000 cars per year by 2020.