[InTheArena]

The "leaks" on email this last week have changed the narrative a lot. The leak last week (probably not planned) of "prove the haters wrong" resulted in a sell off, while the leak over the weekend cushioned the final numbers.

That said, TSLA, just like SpaceX plays really close to the edge with equity and risk in pursuit of a vision. What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular). The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them. They have loyalty like the iPhone had loyalty and Alexa has loyalty.

The big bottleneck to this point has been battery assembly lines at the Gigafactory. They just installed a new line for the battery packing line that they yanked back from Panasonic. Now they need to prove they can start scaling more linearly.

The press reaction to all of this is a good example of the media not knowing what they are talking about. The press has issued breathless reports about there being too much skilled labor and parts by hand, then too much robotic automation. They point at the low uptake of reservation holders (30%) without noting that the reservations are holding constant, and that this is mostly a effect of only the most premium of the premium going on sale right now.

Tesla's barb on the Model T is interesting as well. "This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. If this rate of growth continues, it will exceed even that of Ford and the Model T. "

What Tesla is trying to do is hard. There is a reason no one has been successful in doing it in more then 50+ years. Watching the people who are opposed to what Tesla is doing is just as interesting.

[Someone1234]

> The cars are really a minimal amount of hardware, with software wrapped around them.

It is a car... An electric car at that, where battery tech and costs have pretty much been the cornerstone of Tesla's success. Claiming hardware doesn't matter to a car company is like claiming foundation doesn't matter for a house.

Plus there's nothing particularly minimalist about any of Tesla's cars. They take relatively simple mechanical parts and replace them with complex electrical parts. Look at the door handles in the Model 3 for a perfect example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIADZHLHGL0

[projectramo]

I don't know enough about all the parts of the car, but generally speaking, many people have argued that an electric car is much simpler than a mechanical car. (Something to do with the complexity of the engine, gear, drive train etc).

If I recall, one study indicated that maintenance costs on an ev are a fraction of the current costs for that reason.

[Balgair]

I mean, we really haven't had enough EVs (not mixed, like a Prius) on the road for long enough to make that call. It's possible, but 10+ year battery fail rates, water issues, or other unanticipated issues may over-ride simplicity.

For example: On early Priuses, the regenerative braking would be used so much that the 'real' brakes would calcify/glaze over. When an hard stop was needed (emergency, got cut off, etc) then the 'real' brakes would not work as intended. Many of the early Priuses have front-end damage as a result. It took them about 4 years to fix it.

[snowwrestler]

An electric drive train has far fewer parts than a typical piston engine in a car. From that perspective, it's simpler.

But Tesla insists on putting in all sorts of clever electric doodads like electronic door handles and side mirrors and power windows that have to pop down 1 cm to open. Watch the youtube clip above, it's hilarious.

Even if a GM or Ford gas car has more parts than a Tesla, GM and Ford have, what, almost 100 years of experience each engineering cars.

[pavlov]

> The big bottleneck to this point has been battery assembly lines at the Gigafactory. They just installed a new line for the battery packing line that they yanked back from Panasonic.

I like Tesla, but it doesn't give me a good vibe if they're blaming partners at this point.

[InTheArena]

This was a couple of quarters ago. To the best of my knowledge, Tesla never stated this explicitly, but it was in the press.

[empath75]

> What most Tesla shorts fail to recognize is that Tesla has already gotten to the point that if something really really bad where to happen, any number of well capitalized tech firms would scoop them up in a instant (looking at Apple in particular).

Maybe -- or they could wait to buy their assets in bankruptcy.

[ISL]

Bankruptcy is precisely when a well-capitalized buyer might buy Tesla.

If TSLA fell that far, the shorts would get paid.

[projectramo]

Yes, or even if they bought Tesla before that because it was in "trouble", the shorts would have paid out.

[bigtex]

No potential suitor in their right mind would buy a car company whose main factory is in one of the most heavily regulated areas in regard to air pollution.