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by daxorid 3003 days ago
> I wouldn't expect it to collapse until 2019 at the earliest.

Part of the function of financial cash markets (options are another matter) is to discount future profits into present prices. An expectation of a 2019 collapse is nearly as good, in terms of present asset price discovery information, as an expectation of a 2018 collapse.

These solvency expectations feed forward to the present, driving prices lower, which makes raising money to avert the expected collapse anywhere from expensive to impossible. It's a . . . "fun" cycle to be caught in.