[purpledove]

I agree - there is a vagueness issue with the rule, and it is not obviously falsifiable. But as stated, the rule does not discuss unpublished works - it is a statement about published work, and the statement is that each scientist is throwing the dice when they publish, and there is nothing the scientist can do to increase his chances.

[knowtheory]

yes, fair point, the domain is published works. The observation about Einstein still stands though yeh? :)