[Robotbeat]

Elon Musk could easily be wrong. Has been wrong multiple times in the past.

But one of Elon Musk's most underrated traits is his adaptability: if a genuinely better/cheaper technology becomes available or if the current picked solution just isn't working, he'll switch to the better option quickly.

For instance: SpaceX originally scoffed at the idea of vertical landing rockets, thinking that parachutes were just fine for recovery. They switched after parachutes failed and then Elon sent out a company-wide email of Masten Space Systems (at the time, not much more than some guys in a garage) doing this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2Yt5L5TlGM

It's not even that hard to change your mind like that. It's just that usually people don't do it because they invested so much emotionally/verbally/etc in telling people they had the "right" solution and don't want to lose face by changing course.

[JimmyAustin]

The issue is that Musk committed to the "LIDAR is unnecessary" path when he told users that the 6 figure cars he was selling had the necessary hardware to support L5 automation. There is going to be blowback if he suddenly says "Whoops, you gotta buy another or drop 20k on upgrades if you want SDC capability".

[Robotbeat]

I don't think Musk would spring for LIDAR until it's under $1000. If necessary, they can then find a way to retrofit the hardware onto those who already paid for the full autonomy option (maybe tens of thousands?), and for others, they can wrap the (relatively modest) cost into any future autonomy upgrades. "Enhanced autonomy" is a $5000 option for the Model S, with "Full autonomy" being another $3000. A $1000 LIDAR system definitely fits.