[Bodhisattya]

But aren't the exceptionally talented(2%) people supposed to win way more than 3%, if we assume talent plays a larger role. It is not a bad output, but not good enough either considering they are exceptional. The paper probably indicates that talent stops becoming the limiting factor somewhere pretty close to average talent, and environmental influences/luck take precedence.

We could argue as to what constitutes luck but I think the core of the paper suggests that talent's importance in success is overestimated, which is rather believable (MY ANECDOTAL OPINION).

Haven't read the paper, just assuming from the articles.