[Apocryphon]

Taiwan is a first world democracy that has at least existed with its own distinct government for seventy years. A Chinese military invasion would be unprecedented in the history of the world since WWII. I wonder what such a war would signify for the postwar order.

[jotm]

A very sudden decline in Chinese manufacturing, that's what. With such a bold action, many if not most US and EU businesses will pull out of China, this would be no joking matter. Still not sure there would be a WW3 over Taiwan or any other small country that is not is some sort of bigger union.

[Apocryphon]

Most recent invasions by the great powers have been against pariah states (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya) or somewhat diplomatically isolated countries that are shaky (Georgia, Ukraine, Syria). Taiwan might not have much diplomatic recognition, but it's very much economically integrated into the global economy. It's a stable democracy with one of the highest living standards. Militarily challenging the existence of such a state- that would indicate the world is slipping back into a pre-Potsdam world, where advanced nations could fight each other again.

Granted, Taiwan is much militarily weaker than China, a little similar to the Ukraine-Russian relationship, but it's also a much more stable and richer state. I think what could be comparable is if Russia really was to threaten the Baltic nations.

[Slansitartop]

> A very sudden decline in Chinese manufacturing, that's what. With such a bold action, many if not most US and EU businesses will pull out of China, this would be no joking matter.

Could that be a policy plus for China? IIRC, they have wanted to reduce their export-dependence for some time, though I'm sure that they'd prefer to accomplish it is a more gradual and controlled way.

[jotm]

Well, good (except for the potential war part). It would mean more work in the west.