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by adventured 3035 days ago
Nothing has changed at all in fact. For better or worse.

Russia just rattled their sabre because they're desperate. They've recognized an inability to keep up economically with the US and China, and they will fall further and further behind because of that.

Russia's population hasn't expanded in nearly four decades. In that time the US has added 100 million people. China added 400 million people. That population expansion is an economic weapon.

Russia's economy hasn't expanded since 2006-2007. Putin entirely failed to transition the Russian economy off of dependency on energy prices. Without economic growth, they can't keep spending more on their military. Meanwhile the US and China perpetually expand their economies.

The gap between the US and Russia economically has gone from 11 to 1 in 1989, to 15 to 1. And it's worth noting that output gap in 1989 was already extreme, as Russia was effectively a bankrupt nation at that point. That the US has continued to put distance between it and Russia economically, is a massive failure by Putin. Or to put it in another perspective, Canada now has a larger economy than Russia.

And then the China story. Well, that's just a joke of a comparison. In 1989 China had an economy 1/3 smaller than Russia. Today it's 10 times larger. It leaves Russia wilting in contrast, they've become a second tier power.

3 comments

While your logic makes sense, there is far more to war then economics, otherwise the middle east wouldnt be a mess, and then there is the vietnam war.

Something has changed greatly. It is the fall of globalism and the rise of nationalism. Putins reminder he has the will to use MAD is sign of the new times.

With the current anti-immigrant nature of the American right, the US will start to stagnate in population over the next decade if those people are not removed from power.
I agree with all your points and it makes the US obsession with Russian influence ridiculous IMO.