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by AnimalMuppet
3032 days ago
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The US had to do something like this because of North Korea. We trust deterrence with Russia much more than we do with North Korea. I don't thing ABM defenses really change things. Russia can throw 2000 warheads at us. Can we stop them all? No way. But would we have a chance at stopping one North Korean nuke? Yes. So I think this is only destablilizing if Russia and China decide that it is. If Russia is looking realistically at the situation, there is exactly zero chance that the US will willingly take the amount of damage that Russia could cause, even with ABM defenses reducing the damage. |
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Yes, USA is saying that it has to come up with something like this to counter rogue states and I can believe that. But why should Russia/China or any other country keep their part of the mutual nuclear disarmament bargain in that case? (ABM defenses is part of the deal here) Everyone has a different view on how to enforce peace. There is actually a theory in international relations that the safest earth can get is when everyone have nuclear weapons capable of destroying everyone else.[2] And it is part of a neorealist theory so Russia and China are pretty "realistic" in their approach. To be honest the safest way for any country is to have such a weapon that can crush the earth if used. Is it safe for humanity? No. But it is definitely the safest way to ensure your regime.
"The US had to do something like this because of North Korea" Well, USA never did anything about Israel, Pakistan, India. There are 10+ more countries "being one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb. Why bother now? And here is another POV: Initially ABM defense was advertised to stop Iran ballistic missile development and USA sold lots of Aegis parts to Europe/Turkey/Saudi Arabia. And Russians freaked out about radars in Poland covering most part of western Russia and backed Iran... And I think they had their reasons for concern because Poland wasn't even in range of Iranian missiles at that time. And it goes on and on, but anyway it pretty much started the new race on a global scale. Doesn't matter who was the first: India/Pakistan/NK/Iran, ABM escalated it to a completely new level. Btw i doubt many ppl know that it was Pakistan who started NK nuclear development in 2002.[2]
"But would we have a chance at stopping one North Korean nuke? Yes" And that's the real danger. If someone in Japan or South Korea think the same, that they are truly protected with this shield, they will have strong desire to influence/provoke North Korea/ try a regime change... And that can cause a full scale war with nuclear state. The point here: is it really secure or just an illusion of security? And btw North Korea probably has more that just 1-10 or even 100 nukes at this point.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_peace
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea%E2%80%93Pakistan_r...