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by chipotle_coyote 3028 days ago
I'm pretty confident that the choice of Windows Phone over Android really didn't have to do with the UI, or even with Elop's past Microsoft connections: it had to do with services. Nokia wanted to bring their own services to the platform, especially relating to maps and navigation, and they wanted to have the new OS vendor be a full branded partner. With Google, that was an either/or choice: they could have used AOSP and their own services, but they wouldn't get the Android branding and Google's support. Microsoft was more willing to play ball.

Personally, I think they should have gone with AOSP and leveraged Qt: by the end of 2010, they'd already gotten their two operating systems (Symbian and MeeGo) to a point where it wasn't a lot of work to recompile applications for one to run on the other. (N.B.: I don't know how much of this work ever actually made it out of Nokia. I was working there in 2010, when all of this was going down.) Given that Qt already ran on Android, IIRC, it might not have been that much work to do the same thing on top of AOSP, producing a Nokia-specific release that could run Android software and provide a clear path forward for Symbian users and developers. I was a little shocked that they didn't release a Qt compatibility layer for Windows Phone, instead choosing to pretty much leave their existing developer community on that burning platform.

The Lumias did ship too late, but I think the previous commenter who referred to the "Osborne Effect" has it right; a Nokia that had appeared firmly committed to Symbian and forging a bridge from the existing to the forthcoming generation might have fared considerably better. The Nokia N8 and N9 should have been supported as flagships rather than sort of apologetically shoved out the door with "DEAD PHONE WALKING" written on the boxes. On a practical level, this might not have saved them (especially if they'd stuck with Windows Phone, which it turned out the market really hadn't been waiting for after all), but it might have given them a fighting chance.

I don't think Nokia would have tried to downscale itself either way, by the way -- they'd have kept their network equipment division, and might have even kept their mapping division. They'd balanced that with consumer mobile hardware for years before that, after all; I don't see why they couldn't have kept doing that with Android devices.

4 comments

You're definitely right about services. Nokia wanted to be a full partner in the platform, rather than just another OEM as they would have been with Google.

> The Nokia N8 and N9 should have been supported as flagships rather than sort of apologetically shoved out the door with "DEAD PHONE WALKING" written on the boxes.

The N8 shipped in late 2010, before Elop had done anything. It had a huge marketing campaign and was Nokia's great Symbian hope. A poor market response was entirely due to the product itself.

The painfully visible shortcomings of the N8 probably were a factor in Elop's decision. Nokia's pipeline for 2011-2012 was filled with devices built on the N8's software and even older Symbian versions, and it was obvious those would not sell.

> I don't think Nokia would have tried to downscale itself either way, by the way -- they'd have kept their network equipment division, and might have even kept their mapping division

The phone division was losing money. Selling it to Microsoft gave Nokia the cash to buy out Nokia Siemens Networks. Selling maps gave the cash to expand those operations. If Nokia had kept phones and maps, they wouldn't have networks today.

I like your explanation about services.

One thing -

> I was a little shocked that they didn't release a Qt compatibility layer for Windows Phone

Windows Phone 7, which was current at the time of the switch, was managed-code only (i.e. .NET). There was no way to port Qt to it and no way to leverage any experience that developers for their existing platforms already had. That was one reason the switch was so dramatic.

> Windows Phone 7...was managed-code only.

D'oh! I didn't know that. (I was laid off right before the Windows Phone switch was announced, so never had any reason to look into it.) Welp.

WP 7.5 let you run some native code if you tried hard enough. Manufacturer signing gave more permissions than developer signing, so it might have been possible? I'm not sure if native code (such as it was) was an addition to 7.5 or part of 7, though.
> Personally, I think they should have gone with AOSP

It's certainly complex to armchair quarterback the idea, but I don't think Nokia would have had any more luck than Amazon's FireOS (or the failed/doomed commercial attempt at Cyanogen, for that matter) if they had attempted that. AOSP has long been a seemingly open carrot with far too many hidden and closed sticks in Google's control.

Do you mean the FirePhone specifically?

FireOS is still used on the Fire tablets, which appear to be one of the most successful non-Apple tablet around. At least successful enough for it to be on its 7th generation with yearly refreshes, anyway. Similarly FireOS continues to mostly track AOSP, with the Android 7.1-based FireOS 6 being the latest release.

I wouldn't be so quick to blame FirePhone's failings on FireOS vs. Google given the number of gimmicks FirePhone tried to do, like the weird 4 front-facing cameras doing pretend-depth on the UI. I think would be hard to definitively state FirePhone failed purely because of FireOS not being Google-certified. FireOS probably didn't help, sure, but I don't think it was FirePhone's exclusive failure point, either.

I include the Fire tablets in my assessment of AOSP: the app stores have diverged to the point where you increasingly often need different APKs for FireOS and Google Play, and that divergence will continue to grow as Google continues to expand the proprietary Play API surfaces.

Even before Google started moving most API investment out of AOSP and into Google Play directly, FireOS has never felt like a "real" Android. I'd wager most of its tablet users don't even realize the connection to Android. At this point, how much does Amazon really benefit from AOSP that aren't already handling themselves?

This is entirely my own supposition, but based on what I've seen of the entirely different apps platform and ecosystem for the Echo devices, especially the Echo Show "tablet", and how well it is currently doing in the market, it is very easy for me to imagine Amazon will also be getting out of the AOSP game eventually on its Fire tablets/sticks as well. It's easy to imagine Amazon would be happier to have an ecosystem it more directly owns (and doesn't have to keep fighting a cold war with Google Play).

Only the 3rd generation Fire TV Stick runs Fire OS 6, based on Android 7.1. The latest Fire tablet runs Fire OS 5.6, based on Android 5.1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_OS#List_of_Fire_OS_versio...

>I'm pretty confident that the choice of Windows Phone over Android really didn't have to do with the UI, or even with Elop's past Microsoft connections

The book says otherwise. Elop met with Ballmer twice during the negotiations. He never once met with Google representatives even once.

Elop kept a physical distance from the negotiations. He and Schmidt had not met in a real negotiation even once. There were two or three phone negotiations, but there were only meetings at events, at the most. Elop was also not known to have met any of the other Google negotiators. This makes one wonder, when it is known that Elop met Microsoft’s Ballmer at least twice in direct negotiations.

>With Google, that was an either/or choice

No it wasn't. The book details how Google was prepared to make concessions for Nokia.

According to a source present, Google seemed to really want Nokia to join the Android world. The company assured that Android can be customized more than Nokia understood, especially compared with Windows Phone. Even if Google was criticized continuously for having Samsung, HTC and Sony Android phones differ from each other too much, Nokia would be given leeway to create its own user experience. Google saw that Nokia differentiated from these competitors in that it had a global area of operation. Nokia would be able to create better local services and user experiences for network providers and customers, one person present remembers being discussed. The Nokians also noticed that they had been living partially with misinformation. Nokia could continue with Android with its own maps side-by-side with Google’s maps. The same applied with the app store. Nokia’s music service as well as ovi.com could continue, as long as the phone had Google Play.

As the negotiations proceeded, a solution was found. Google offered Nokia, among other things, plenty of say in choosing the direction of Android development. By directing Android development to align with its own competitive goals, Nokia would gain some advantage, even if the changes would be available for everyone at the same time. Now Nokia was interested. Android and Nokia had an area where their interests converged in a brilliant way: Developing countries. If Android could be made to work on cheap hardware, Nokia would be best at getting in through in developing markets. The arrangement was enticing. Google would secure the position it was dreaming of in smartphones, and Nokia would become part of virgin Android markets. The precise details remained hidden, but Nokia was able to learn that Google worked Android into clearly cheaper models than Windows Phone.

Google made a substantial offer regarding distribution of income. Nokia would have gotten a portion of the income from Google’s search engine, app store, and other services which originate from Nokia phones, and the terms would be in relation to Nokia’s influence in the ecosystem. We don’t have information about precise percentages, but at any rate, Google’s promise was quite exceptional, considering that Nokia would still have been able to keep its own services in its phones.

Contrary to what Nokia has claimed, Google was ready for concessions. It was ready to flex as far as it could in the framework of OHA, and even then some more.

Interesting. That (obviously) contradicts what I heard at the time from folks I was still in contact with, but I'll take the book's word on it. What you quote doesn't entirely contradict the notion that Microsoft offered what Nokia considered a better deal, though, especially if Nokia wanted only their services rather than "side-by-side" services. (Although Nokia traded away a lot, anyway, as it played out.)
>Microsoft offered what Nokia considered a better deal, though, especially if Nokia wanted only their services rather than "side-by-side" services.

Then why were Nokia services side by side with Microsoft services on Nokia Windows Phones? Also, the Nokia app store was nowhere to be found.

Additionally, according to a review of the Lumia 800, by The Verge[1], there was almost nothing to differentiate the device from any other WP device produced by HTC or Samsung. The extent of the Nokia modifications amounted to nothing more than Nokia Drive, Nokia Music and sounds, ringtones and wallpapers. Is this what Nokia had in mind when selecting Windows Phone to showcase their services and USP? Unique Nokia sounds, ringtones and wallpapers?

[1]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5ZbwCI_nZY

IIRC, Windows Phone 7/8/8.1 defaulted to HERE Maps platform wide (not just Nokia devices, but certainly on Nokia devices) in the main Map app due to the partnership, despite Microsoft's large investments into Bing Maps. Maps on mobile I think only "recently" reverted to Bing in Windows 10 with the expiration of the deal with HERE Maps.

The Lumias always had a number of exclusive Nokia-only "accessory" apps like Glance that were so well embedded they seemed like built-in Windows Phone apps (and unsurprisingly subsequently became built-in platform-wide apps post-Nokia acquisition) that a lot of people didn't notice they were Nokia services/value adds. On the one hand, that was part of why the Lumias were so great at the time was how seamlessly they upgraded the platform as a whole, but on the other hand, it's a weird marketing failure that comparison shoppers may not have realized what was an important value-adding Nokia app/setting/feature and not a Microsoft app/setting/feature, and what value Nokia was adding on top of the platform.