| A few early thoughts: I think about half of their 2017 net loss was due to something to do with Convertible Notes, that they're explaining on pages F-43 and F-44. I'm trying to calculate patio11's "fundamental equation of SAAS" ( https://twitter.com/patio11/status/965985835790184448 ) for the numbers for churn, subscribers, and ARPU on pages 67 to 70ish. Will update if I actually figure it out. Ok, here is my attempt for their premium service: pp68, 2017 ARPU = 5.32 EUR/mo. pp69, 2017 Churn = 5.5%/mo. pp79, 2017 Customer Acquisition, 48 Million at end of 2016, 71 Million at end of 2017. (71 - 48) / 48 * 100% = 48%. To convert to monthly, if I just divide by 12 it is 4%/month. If I do (1.48)^(1/12) it is 3.3%. I guess this is net of churn, So their fresh acquisition I would estimate at 5.5% + 3.3% = 8.8%. I'll leave the math as an exercise to the reader, partly because I don't know what is being summed over in the formula. I'd be curious to know at what number of users do they break-even if their cost of revenue, sales, and marketing are linear to users and their other non-financial costs remain fixed. |