[nyolfen]

i would think that greenland melting wouldn't happen all at once (if that's what you're saying), but rather that due to higher average ocean temperatures more of it would melt in the summer and less of it would freeze in the winter, and cumulatively over years and decades it has a net loss of ice, and perhaps eventually loses most of it. am i missing something in your argument?

[oldandtired]

It is more nuanced than that. In any relatively short time span, we may see specific effects (higher temperatures for example) and we may see other effects (increase atmospheric CO2), but this doesn't mean that over a longer term we will continue to see these effects.

The other aspect is that there are some very specific physics involved and I have yet to see any discussion over these specific effects.

We have seen, in some areas, what appears to be increasingly variable climate conditions. Yet, if one is willing to look into and take the time to investigate the appropriate historical records, these variations have occurred before and were, in fact, much stronger.

The affects from these conditions were not felt to the same extent as today because we have vastly different population distributions.

Let me give you an example.

When I was a child, we had a family regime every spring to prepare for the cyclones that would regularly hit the region in summer. As I moved into my latter teens and forward into my twenties, the regularity changed and we saw quite a diminished number and size of these events. Further time passed and the events grew less frequent but were significantly stronger.

The general consensus was that climate variation was getting worse. I dug into the available historical records for the mid 19th century to the early 20th century for the same region. I found that the events during that time were significantly stronger. We talk about category 5 cyclones today and, honestly, I rather have a category 5 than the monster cyclones from 19th century.

As far as Greenland is concerned, even with higher global temperatures (as specified by the IPCC), the amount of ice melt is still to be expected in the range of dead skin cells being rubbed off the back of an elephant. The energy requirements are just so unimaginable that if you were to put the entire world's nuclear arsenal to the task, it would barely be a pin prick.

[bigbugbag]

When you take time to investigate the historical meteorological records you find out that almost all the highest temperature records since we started recording data are concentrated after 2010.

If you have a basic scientific education you know that any example starting by "when I was a child" is anecdotal evidence and have very limited value because it is akin to confirmation bias and cherry picking.

I'm curious as why you don't apply the principles you were bradishing to the 19th century meteorological data: http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/CR/iswscr2011-02.pdf

About Greenland ice sheet disappearing your thinking is oversimplified by looking only at energy required to melt ice. There are several other mechanisms to take into account, for example the increase in cloud cover preventing refreeze at night, or the melted cover snow and ice running into moulins to the ground which then flow under the glacier lubricating it and acceleratiing its motion and thus glacial calving, etc.

When studying a system you need to have basic understanding of second order cybernetics and feedback loops. In climate change positive feedback loop are the reasons past a tipping point there's no stopping it.

[oldandtired]

I wasn't talking about temperature rises, I was talking about extreme climate conditions. Since all the who-ha is about the rising level of extreme climate events, it is significant that older historical records record more extreme events.

The problem of confirmation bias and cherry picking is not a problem with "anecdotal evidence". Anecdotal evidence is an opportunity to further look into the events related to the evidence to see what its veracity is. I have been involved in various experimental activities and I have found that in some of those activities that the results obtained were deemed unacceptable because they did not match the expectation of the reviewers. Even when the experiments were repeated (under further supervision) and were similar to the original results, they were not accepted.

With regards to the 19th century data, this information was supplied by the National Bureau of Meteorology. Since these records were not recorded in a time of Political Correctness for climate change, I don't expect them to have been manipulated either way. So at face value and for a first approximation we can regards them as accurate.

You additional mechanisms are all involved in the energy transfers and requirements. What you forget is that to have the phase change from solid to liquid requires a set amount of energy given a set atmospheric pressure. Irrespective of how much calving occurs, we have to consider what is the accumulation rate of ice to the back end and the total amount of calving at the front end. In addition, the required calving on a daily basis still needs to be measured in the cubic kilometres or in the gigatonne range.

The problem with feedback loops in climate is that we do not know, we only think we know. With very simple systems, we can and do get to a position of understanding the various feedback loops. With complex system, we do not. We often see unexpected results. Climate is a global phenomenon and is so complex that we will not understand it for the forseeable future. That does not mean we shouldn't try, but to rely on the current models as if they are "truth" is good way to end up in a blind alley with no way out.

I don't have a problem with cleaning up the environment and finding more efficient ways to run transport and waste handling, mining and manufacturing. But to take the position of climate change being mainly or only anthropogenic is foolishness at best and utter stupidity at worst.

We have no idea (that includes every climate scientists who pushes the anthropogenic climate change agenda) as to the real relationships being natural and anthropogenic causes for climate change.

If you were to put every one of those who believe such in the position of having to bet their life on it, how many would do so? I mean putting gun against the head and testing with that wonderfully reliable device called a polygraph and pulling the trigger if any doubt was shown at all. Since the polygraph is an unreliable piece of equipment, I don't think we would see too many takers, would you?

The above, I know, is a bit ridiculous, but think about it.