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by T2_t2
3030 days ago
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Your advice from your first sentence holds true, and extrapolating too wildly is unwise. MAYBE driverless cars become a reality and quickly at that. MAYBE that makes drivers in the west redundant just as fast. But worldwide? I think people underestimate how inexpensive labour is in places like Bali, let alone Kenya. No one knows what will happen, or what new industries will be formed as a result of these changes, and the warnings are all good and well, but there is much doubt in all directions, and crazy policy implemented to avert a disaster may be just as bad as doing nothing. That's why this whole new level of automation is so scary: no body has any clear idea what will happen, and the policy shift is really, really unclear. |
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> No one knows what will happen, or what new industries will be formed as a result of these changes
No, but we can make some pretty good educated guesses:
Anything that does not require a skill that can't be automated will eventually go away. How long the transition will take will be a major factor in whether or not it will be a smooth one or a terrible one. I hope it will be a century or more, I fear it will be a decade or less once the keys to AGI are unlocked. Worst case it will be shorter than that. In the last two cases: buckle up.
> and the warnings are all good and well, but there is much doubt in all directions, and crazy policy implemented to avert a disaster may be just as bad as doing nothing.
That sounds like a global warming piece.
> That's why this whole new level of automation is so scary: no body has any clear idea what will happen, and the policy shift is really, really unclear.
Yes it is. As far as shocks are concerned this will be one of the biggest that humanity has had to endure so far.