[Nomentatus]

"low base rate [of change] for all technologies" - measured over centuries. Meanwhile all technologies (nearly) experience discontinuous advances, often near their start. See, steam engines and Watt, etc, etc, etc.

The rest of the argument seems to be grounded in an assumption that electronic neurons or sims of them won't ever be faster than meat. Really? Today's crude neural nets are already very useful here and there precisely because their speed means they scale and can repeat a task very, very frequently in a small amount of time.