[emodendroket]

The other guy is right though. Other than gastric bypass, all methods of weight loss have like a 2% success rate over the long term. Given numbers like that, I don't see it as useful to cast it as a problem of willpower.

The existence of large national trends also, to my mind, points away from individual failings. I find it hard to believe that the willpower of the average person has simply dropped off steeply over a few decades.

[cornholio]

> Other than gastric bypass, all methods of weight loss have like a 2% success rate over the long term.

That's not at all correct. Success rates of weight loss by dieting are around 20%. That's still low, but you have to ask yourself: is it because people really can't control their diet long term, or is it because the majority of the population prefers the self serving narative of obesity genes and viruses, addiction engineered by the food industry, "the calorie myth", the intractable failure of willpower over body impulse, and so on? Because that sounds a lot like a self fulfilling prophecy.

Mind you, I'm grossly overweight (peak BMI 34, current 30), and I know full well the power of my body for mind control. A skinny person can't even imagine the fight every chubby faces on a daily basis. Yet, due to wining most battles, I've managed to lose some and not turn into the 500 Kg monster by body "demands" - I could easily eat 4-5000 calories on a daily basis, to great satisfaction.

[emodendroket]

Well, here's a source I was remembering the claim from (I was just a little off): http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_exa...

> In reality, 97 percent of dieters regain everything they lost and then some within three years. Obesity research fails to reflect this truth because it rarely follows people for more than 18 months. This makes most weight-loss studies disingenuous at best and downright deceptive at worst.

I also think this article is interesting because it includes some personal testimony from a successful long-term dieter that I think illustrates why most people are not successful:

> Debra Sapp-Yarwood, a fiftysomething from Kansas City, Missouri, who’s studying to be a hospital chaplain, is one of the three percenters, the select few who have lost a chunk of weight and kept it off. She dropped 55 pounds 11 years ago, and maintains her new weight with a diet and exercise routine most people would find unsustainable: She eats 1,800 calories a day—no more than 200 in carbs—and has learned to put up with what she describes as “intrusive thoughts and food preoccupations.” She used to run for an hour a day, but after foot surgery she switched to her current routine: a 50-minute exercise video performed at twice the speed of the instructor, while wearing ankle weights and a weighted vest that add between 25 or 30 pounds to her small frame.

> “Maintaining weight loss is not a lifestyle,” she says. “It’s a job.” It’s a job that requires not just time, self-discipline, and energy—it also takes up a lot of mental real estate. People who maintain weight loss over the long term typically make it their top priority in life.

[cornholio]

Here is a metastudy that finds 97% kept some weight off after 4-5 years, and 35% maintained or increased their percentage loss: https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/74/5/579/4737391

Still bad but not as bad.

It's also important to point out a strong self selection bias in such studies: we mostly deal with those who were overweight and needed to start a diet, so they probably had low impulse control to begin with. An important part of population with better control and similar cravings might have started their willpower exercise after gaining the first few pounds, it's disingenuous to discourage everybody using statistics applied to those who have a trackrecord of failure. If you gained weight by simply not caring about your weight (depression, cultural norms etc.) then you might stand a much better chance of success when you start to care.

The testimonial sounds like a clasic case of artificially lowered basal metabolic rate by crash dieting and associated loss of lean body mass. Such people need high resistance, mass building exercises, not catabolism-inducing aerobic. She might live a very long life tho.

[emodendroket]

> It's also important to point out a strong self selection bias in such studies: we mostly deal with those who were overweight and needed to start a diet, so they probably had low impulse control to begin with.

By this metric some three-quarters of Americans have poor impulse control (cf. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States#/...), so I think it is actually the other group that is exceptional.

[cornholio]

That's why I mentioned cultural norms, I really don't know how many of those Americans really want to lose weight, but it's clearly not a reflection of typical human capacity for self control.

There are many other nations that reached comparable prosperity and food abundance at similar times, yet don't have even comparable obesity rates. An extreme case is Japan, at 3.5% obesity rate maintained largely though willpower and cultural norms, by literally firing those that are too fat, or in any case applying strong social pressure and mandatory counseling.

[emodendroket]

Well, I have a few objections to that:

1. There are other differences in Japan -- most obviously a very different diet

2. Obesity rates in other countries are catching up to the United States.

3. The first two points call into question your claim that Americans are uniquely lacking in willpower.

4. I don't want to live in a society where people are fired or ostracized for being fat because it is cruel and inhumane.

5. The US has a $66 billion weight loss market, suggesting many Americans do want to lose weight (cf., https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-weight-loss-mark...), but I'll leave it to the oracles to decipher what you mean by "really" want.

[croon]

You are right in your description, but I disagree with your conclusion.

Yes, the statistics of people in weight loss programs keeping their weight off is really low, but this could have many explanations:

* Are they included because they wanted a one-time solution to a permanent problem?

* Did they initially get coaching that they later lost?

* Did the changes they made temporarily not work for them personally in the long term?

Even if this is statistics of everyone that has ever tried losing weight, does it matter? Humans haven't evolved in the 50-100 years that obesity has exploded. This makes it conclusive that it can't be physiological, does it not?

So it could be culturally behavioral, as a society, or individual, and it's looking like the former, but does it matter?

What is more likely, that we as a culture fixes the obesity problem against any market forces pushing it, or that you die of obesity before that happens, unless you individually go against the grain of what is pushed upon you?

The only way to lose weight is to make changes you can see yourself living with for the rest of your life. This sounds heavy, but none of your reflex habits seem heavy to you, but might to someone else. That's exactly why thin people seem to have it so easy (which they do). They have had a healthy habit of exercise and limited portion sizes their entire life, so they don't even have to think about it.

You don't need exercise to lose weight, but you definitely need it to feel healthy. You need to find something you can either bare to do for the rest of your life, or best case enjoy doing. Soon enough it will be a habit you don't consider anyways.

Same goes for food. There is no trick to it, and not one diet that works for everyone (in terms of psychology). Some can do it by counting everything they put in their mouth. Some can do it by forcing them to sit down everytime they put something in their mouth (so you don't walk around and snack without realizing). Some just cut out any drink that isn't water. Some cut out any snacks that isn't their one absolute favorite. Some just eat once a day without regards to portion size. Etc etc etc. It is harsh, but no one else will do it for you. You don't have to do anything about it if you don't want to, but it's not productive to hide behind lies as to why you can't.

[emodendroket]

So essentially you agree that we live in an environment that encourages obesity but in the end you think individuals should just "suck it up" and try harder. I think this is unlikely to ever see success for a large percentage of people and I don't think it's fair to fault people for not succeeding.

[croon]

No, I'm saying if someone wants to live longer they should, because the environment around them is much less likely to change. It isn't fair, but it works and is the path with least resistance, not low resistance.