[overdrivetg]

The other stat I think is relevant is that the average car today is 11.5 years old. Or looked at another way, in 11 years, HALF of the cars on the road are the cars that are on the road today. I guess if we cut down the number of cars total due to efficiencies of self-driving carshare maybe that goes down but still... If Level 5 autonomous drive were available TODAY, it's still a long metaphoric road towards complete switchover.

It's hard to tell what the average tractor age is, but it looks between 6 and 10 years old so you have the same rough math in the 6-10 years after we have fully autonomous self-driving trucks where we'll still have half the trucks on the road as human-driven.

Plus if autonomous trucks increase capacity and/or efficiency and cut shipping costs, that might also stimulate shipping demand and therefore keep human drivers on the road longer as well.

Your 10-20 years guess feels right to me, but only after we actually have the autonomous truck thing fully sorted out, IMO.