[geoffc]

For the last 30 years I have bought stock in tech products I use and like and hold it until I no longer like the product. This simple strategy has dramatically outperformed the indexes. In hindsight the last 30 years have been great for tech so maybe I just got lucky on my industry selection.

[PricelessValue]

> In hindsight the last 30 years have been great for tech so maybe I just got lucky on my industry selection.

A lot of tech companies went bankrupt. So you got "lucky" selecting the right tech companies and buying and selling them at the right time.

If you bought YHOO or Petsdotcom or any of AOL during the dot com boom and held on, then you would have lost a lot of money. For every AMZN there are dozens of tech companies that went under.

Also, the last 30 years have seen an absurd stock market boom. Take a look at the chart to see what the last 30 years have been like. The S&P has been on a tear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index#/media/File:S_...

To the moon baby!

[geoffc]

Companies with great products rarely go bankrupt in my experience (while the product is great of course).

[bfuller]

AOL never went bankrupt.

[acct1771]

On the contrary, it's a significant part of a very alive ad network.

[Patient0]

On the other hand, if you had simply invested equally in those four names I think you might still be doing very well despite three of them being worthless now. AMZN is trading at 15 times what it was at the height of the dot com bubble. https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=amzn+stockmprocr&rlz=1CDGO...

[djhn]

I'd love to see a list with approximate timelines! This strategy can backfire very hard if your taste in tech products is unconventional.

[icebraining]

What were you holding during the dotcom bust, if you don't mind me asking?

[dboreham]

AMZN, hopefully?

[geoffc]

My product tastes are pretty mainstream, nothing obscure. In the early days I liked Windows and Netware as I did a lot of consulting work with them and had good runs with them. I sat out the dotcom boom and bust as I was putting all my cash into my gigs. In the internet era I liked the business Saas'es (SFDC, N, HUBS, BOX) because I believe in and understand that industry. I was amazed by OSX the first time I tried it so bought Apple. I bought Amazon, Google and SIRI pretty early when I saw what heavy users of the products me and my family were. I was blown away by the first Tesla I saw and bought that. I like the latest fitbits so I just bought some of that, let's see what happens to that. I don't look at the price or financials on either the entrance or exit so on the negative side I sold Apple a few years ago and missed the last half of the run.

[pedrocr]

What criteria do you use to exit then? Do you track returns over time somehow? Would be really interesting to compare to Nasdaq or another relevant benchmark.

[geoffc]

I exit when I either no longer love the product or see a replacement product I like better. I have my accounts at Fidelity and my 10 year RoR is 33% vs 9.78% for the S&P 500 (31% going back to 2003 when I consolidated accounts there).

What I like about the approach is that product is a leading indicator and can be judged by anyone. The financials and stock price seem to trail the product by 1-3 years on both the upside and downside.

BTW I fully agree with the original premise of the thread and think if you try actively trade on financials, timing etc. as a part timer you will get smoked by the pros, sooner or later.

[pedrocr]

Thanks, that's really interesting. I guess you mean RoI and those are yearly numbers? You've multiplied your money by 17? If so, those are some great bets, congratulations.

[IAmGraydon]

You’re saying you made an average yearly return of 33% for 10 years?

[Spooky23]

Amazon was a scary ride during the dot com inmplosion. Rode that mofo from $120 to $12.

[omilu]

That sounds terrifying. Did you hang on for the ride back up, or did you get off at $12.

[Spooky23]

I got out between $30 and $40. I had a hard time reading the tea leaves on the Bezos reality distortion device. :)

On a positive note, the proceeds paid for my honeymoon and the balance went into Apple and Red Hat, both of which did good!

[IAmGraydon]

Proceeds? Going from $120 to $30 is not generally considered a profitable venture.