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by jvm 3052 days ago
I sense a lot of mood affiliation in the title that I'm sure will earn the New York Times a lot of clicks. China is the biggest success story of free trade in the history of the world, and the contrarian take presented here is absurd to the point of silly.

Liberalization is a matter of degree. You can't cherry pick a particular protectionist policy South Korea had and then say, "Oh look see they used import substitution and still had a good outcome." You have to also explain why that import substitution policy didn't ruin the Korean economy the way it did Argentina, or in an extreme example, Maoist China. And what you'll find is that they became much more liberal in other ways.

If you're going to claim that liberalism doesn't matter you need to show your work. You need to show that in aggregate, countries that liberalize their economies do less well than countries with less liberal economies. But when you look at the data, you will find just the opposite: Countries that move in a liberal direction, like China, South Korea, and Chile, tend to improve their outcomes, while those that do not, like Argentina or Zimbabwe, tend to stagnate. And almost every wealthy country in the world is either highly liberalized or sitting on an ocean of crude oil. The fact that even liberal countries have illiberal policies doesn't disprove the benefits of liberalization.

Most likely, Asia succeeded in spite of protectionism, not because of it.

4 comments

China succeeded because it was in the prime position to take advantage of western manufacturing looking to move production facilities elsewhere for wage arbitrage. Right place, right time to reap massive export surpluses - and they were smart enough to use the opportunity to have built up a domestic market/technical knowledge base when wages inevitably started to raise and manufacturers began to move elsewhere again. You're going to see a lot less 'liberalization', and probably some reversals, in China in the coming years.
Rather mostly China succeeded because it had a population larger than any other country. Production depends primarily on resources and human labor is one of the most valuable resources. It is no surprise that population count is strongly correlated with nominal GDP.

This should be completely obvious.

It also refutes the author’s argument. Why has a market economy directed by a Communist state become the world’s second-largest?! Would Friedman find it hard to explain why China, run by a Communist Party, has emerged as central to the global capitalist economy!? China has 19% of the world population but roughly 10% of the world GDP. It is 79th in GDP per capita at purchasing power parity. We should not evaluate a country’s economic policies by looking at its nominal GDP without also looking at its population—this is nothing Friedman would have difficulty explaining.

> Rather mostly China succeeded because it had a population larger than any other country

…is that also why India "succeeded"?

Yes, at least in the sense of succeeding the article talks about. India is the third country in the world by GDP at purchasing power parity, which is consistent with its population being second largest.
I am very confused by this explanation. Why was it right place right time? Why not India? Why not Kenya? Why has Bangladesh followed the same strategy but been so much less successful, with wages much lower than in China?
I would also point out that the author conflate two tightly-coupled but distinct spheres - the political and the economic. China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have all been massively successful because they acted aggressively in the political realm to foster growth and development (with little to no regard for Democratic norms). Conversely, their economic systems were and are fairly liberal (China being both the least developed of these as well as the biggest laggard on this front). Chinese citizens may not be politically empowered, but it is far easier to set up a company, hire and fire, etc. in Shanghai than in New York.
Japan and South Korea fostered growth and development with little to no regard for democratic norms?

I mean yeah, their democracies look a bit strange to Westerners, what with Japan being governed by mostly one party and South Korea being a fairly new democracy... But what specifically do you mean?

What your thoughts on states like Somalia and Libya? They are, without a doubt, the freest market feasible. There's no government to control any economic policy. Why are they not succeeding?
They are not the freest market feasible.
Ah, yes, unfortunately, everyone who does not share your perspective is highly emotional and illogical.

If liberalization is all that matters, why isn't a libertarian dream-country like Georgia rich?

This comment breaks the HN guidelines, first by being snarky and second by not doing this:

"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize."

If it had just been the second sentence, the comment would be fine. Please edit the snarky bits out of what you post here. They trigger this place into lower-quality behavior.

Because Georgia isn't a libertarian dream country.

They suffer from relatively high corruption. Transparency.org lists them as comparable to Grenada, Costa Rica, and Rwanda.

Georgia has been subject to being ripped apart by Russia. Its politics are directly, violently influenced by its giant neighbor.

There are no other highly prosperous nations in the region to trade with. All nations in the region are either extremely low on the per capita wealth & per capita income scores, or a few are barely mid-lower tier. Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Serbia, etc. These are quite poor nations per capita. It's like you expect a Singapore or Hong Kong to pop up out of nowhere amongst the desert, without a Japan + South Korea + China to trade with. Much less being eg Denmark in the midst of economic valhalla, or Canada riding on the world's richest economy.

They get ranked very low on property rights protections, government integrity (ie corruption), and judicial:

https://www.heritage.org/index/country/georgia

You can have low taxes, or flat taxes, as in Russia as well, but if your system is a totalitarian dictatorship and part command & control economy, the results are still going to overwhelmingly tend to be mediocre. Or in the case of Georgia, if you still suffer from weak property rights protections and high corruption, trust is going to be very low when it comes to investing. To say nothing of the risk that Russia will randomly destroy the nation, as it's known today, in any given year. That foreign capital investment is a prerequisite to massive economic development.

Prosperous nations very rarely exist in such circumstances, save for a few extremely resource rich examples, such as Qatar, UAE, Brunei and Saudi. Those few isolated examples are all that have existed in modern history out of the present ~195 nations.

Well, by the same standard, we could say that China was very poor when Mao took over and China had historically been subject to a lot of famines. Poking holes in your examples is just as easy.
> we could say that China was very poor when Mao took over and China had historically been subject to a lot of famines

During China's early development time frame (1980s & 1990s) it had the world's largest population base and the world's largest trading partners in the US and Japan (and world's #1 and #2 economies), to leverage for economic expansion. Your example is supportive of my premise: massive foreign investment is a prerequisite. China didn't develop in isolation, they developed solely due to hundreds of billions of dollars that the US invested. Further, China had to abandon its rigid command & control economic policies, and dramatically liberalize away from Mao's former Communist system.

Which neighboring nation is going to randomly choose to invade modern China (post 1970s) and destroy it, as in the case of Russia & Georgia? Pretending investors aren't extremely concerned about that, is silly.

> Poking holes in your examples is just as easy.

Apparently not, you have yet managed to. Saying something is easy, while then not actually doing it (only saying it is), debases the confidence of your entire argument.

I don't recall disputing the idea that foreign investment is helpful.
It's not just helpful, it's a requirement.

Economic development from poverty to prosperity, is nearly impossible without vast foreign investment. The wealthy European powers built up the US economy in its early days, providing immense capital. Without that, the US either would have never properly developed, or it would have taken dramatically longer.

How long has Georgia been separate from the USSR at this point? It was ruled by a backwards, violent, impoverished, broken Soviet system for seven decades. You were what, expecting them to sprout $70k per capita GDP prosperity in just 15-20 years post Soviet slavery, while in the midst of a political and military confrontation with Russia?