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by morelandjs
3058 days ago
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I agree this is a critical feature that Elo ratings omit. Elo ratings are transitive, i.e. if I know the probability that A beats B and the probability that B beats C, then I know the probability that A beats C. It's almost certainly the case that non-linear "rock-paper-scissors" effects exist in professional sports. The tricky bit is trying to estimate these effects with a finite number of samples or observations. Elo thrives on limited data. |
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