| Have you looked at the extreme bubble valuations that are essentially everywhere in the market? The fundamentals are horrific. 2.x% GDP growth stacked against peak PE ratios like ~40 by Coca Cola (KO), with zero (or negative) growth for years. Who are the crazy investors paying that? The US and global economy can't expand fast enough to pull down these multiples in a reasonable amount of time. 50 times earnings for PayPal, for astounding 15% style growth. And similar for Netflix, except at 200 times earnings. Or Activision up at 50x for similarly uninspiring growth. Could always buy Amazon on the moon at 150-200 times earnings, and wait a decade until their earnings catch up. There's always the exciting Microsoft, almost zero inflation adjusted growth for a decade ($17.6b in net income for 2008), in exchange I get to pay 30x earnings. I guess there's always Walmart. I can pay 23-26 times earnings, for a company that has had falling earnings for years. Or 28-30 times for 3M, where I can get years of zero growth for that nice fat multiple. And so on and so forth it goes, across the entire spectrum. Investors were begging to get crushed up at Dow 26k. The recent surge into the market by retail investors is one of the more classic indicators that a bull run is done. They universally arrive late to the party. |