|
|
|
|
|
|
by Jeff_Brown
3060 days ago
|
|
|
"complete miss"? They put his probability of winning somewhere between a quarter and a half -- rather uniquely, among a field of predictors who on average put his probability of winning under 10%. It sounds like because he won, you believe they should have given him a probability greater than 1/2. That represents a misunderstanding of what probability means. |
|
|