[throwaway30yo]

Could be the best buying opportunity of the year.

As someone involved in bitcoin since 2012, these cycles are pretty standard. It went from $1000 to around $250 iirc at one point and recovered. No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover. It may take many years, but its not as if all crypto will die overnight.

I see crypto being big in the more distant future, 15-20 years away when many of the problems are sorted out. Everyone is focused on the extreme short term.

[jacquesm]

> Could be the best buying opportunity of the year.

It could be, but it also could not be. Content free comment.

As for cycles: the big mistake people make when they see a cycle is to believe it will repeat forever.

[everdev]

Yes, if you discovered any predictability or accurate forecasting in asset pricing you'd be the richest person alive.

Markets suck up information so as you sell an "overvalued" asset, the price continues to drop until it's no longer overvalued.

No one has figured out a way to repeatedly and constantly predict the market.

[notahacker]

It seems like a bit of a stretch to argue that a major scam just starting to unravel represents "the best buying opportunity of the year". Buy when it appears to be just about to crash said no investor, ever.

But I can see how holding large amounts of Bitcoin you want to shift could distort that perspective...

[JonnyNova]

> No reason it cant go from $20000 to $5000 and recover.

There are plenty of reasons why it could never recover. The previous cycles happened with a very different environment and context for bitcoin. This time Bitcoin has just hit mainstream. This cycle will very likely crush the mainstream's faith in Bitcoin to where it will never recover.

[FiveSquared]

That’s true, but however, what if Bitcoin goes on like the Video Game Crash of 1983, the Second AI Winter, etc.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983

[JonnyNova]

Apples to oranges, Bitcoin isn't cryptos as a whole. Future cryptos will absolutely succeed Bitcoin.

[lloyd-christmas]

Their comment is based on historical facts, making it apples and oranges. Your speculation has no substance, but is 'absolutely' true? I'm not sure I follow that logic.

[JonnyNova]

The apples to oranges is in reference to comparing Bitcoin to the AI's as a whole. AI as a whole survived the winter but a random implementation from 1985 did not. My comment was comparing Bitcoin as an implementation of a cryptocurrency to previous implementations of AI that have generated hype and then became either irrelevant or obsolete.

[lloyd-christmas]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't back-propagation one of the major techniques in the AI of the 80s? It's 90% of mainstream AI today. Activision was one of the major publishers prior to the video game crash. Today it has the largest share of the market. Just because some things fall out of favor doesn't mean all of them do, especially the most popular ones.

[astrodust]

If the only reason it's stratospheric right now is manipulation then it could be manipulated in the future to "recover".

[JonnyNova]

That wrongfully assumes the whoever is (if it is being) manipulating Bitcoin now will have an incentive to run another scheme again in the future.

[btctw12345]

Crypto may win but what makes you think it will be Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is useless as a currency right now because of fees and transaction times. If that doesn't get fixed than what purpose does it serve?

[lawlessone]

lightning network will fix much of that.

[api]

Bitcoin could crash and never recover, but the tech and its descendants could indeed find uses in the future.

"Cryptocurrency is a massive bubble" and "cryptocurrency and the tech behind it is a major innovation in distributed systems and finance" can both be true.

[adrianN]

Even if you assume that crypto will be successful in 20 years, there is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will still be around.

[JonnyNova]

Very much this. Bitcoin is going to have problems scaling both on and off chain. Newer technology can re-examining of proven methodologies will probably yield a better way forward.

[segmondy]

You are just another of those speculators wishing for the price to go up, hence the reason for hiding behind your throwaway account.

[sunseb]

Yeah crypto will be big in the future, but Bitcoin (and all the current coins actually) : not sure...