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by semiel
3065 days ago
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It's of course possible that Bitcoin had less than a 1/10000 chance of hitting $10,000, and we're just living in an extremely unlikely world. But given that it _did_ happen, it's probably fair to bet that it was possible at the time to give it better than 1/10000 odds. LessWrong is all about the Bayesianism, which means being comfortable with probabilities, even though it means you can never be "sure". |
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