[tinymollusk]

My thought is that unless proved otherwise, the default assumption should not be "signal", it should be "noise".

There is little evidence that modern finance is a free market, or that (macro)-economic theory is all that good at making predictions.

Finally, this may be something we have to agree to disagree on. I look at financial markets and see too much irrational behavior and impossibly complex systems to make accurate predictions on. Without predictions we can test and verify, I don't place much faith in untested assertions, especially since the loudest voices tend to monetize giving advice like this.

Markets are predictable until they aren't. Economics has some interesting things to say about the behavior of people's rationality, but I have yet to be convinced that faith in the free market is anything more than seeing imaginary patterns in a complex system combined with survivorship bias.