| > In order to obtain the optimal amount of benefit, the family unit must already be in a disintegrated state, eg non-married, non-cohabitating, with offspring present. Aggressive means-testing is a compromise outcome, as attributable to conservatives as to liberals/socialists. > This encourages an anti-marriage, anti-stable family pattern. Most of the think-tank pieces pushing this assertion cite the same sociologist, W. Bradford Wilcox, whose work is supported by AEI's Institute for Family Studies. Here's what Wilcox says about what his empirical work demonstrates [1]: > one of the study’s co-authors, said the study’s findings show that welfare is “not the most important factor in explaining why we see a pretty marked increase in single parenthood and unmarried childbearing in the last 40 years.” Discussed at greater length in [2], reaching the conclusion that > Taken together, these results suggest that marriage penalties associated with American social-welfare programs play only a modest role in shaping the marriage decisions of contemporary couples with new children So even the primary academic proponent of this theory, when pressed, admits his own empirical studies don't justify his favored causative hypothesis -- that the effect is mild at best. It's unsurprising, then, that these think thank pieces focus on logical deductions about homo economicus rather than empirical datasets and statistical tests. Social science at its best ;-) Now, none of this is to say that means testing shouldn't be reformed in order to encourage marriage! And in fact, I agree with Wilcox that welfare shouldn't discourage marriage. But we have to respect the science here. Your causative assertion about causes of structural changes to American families isn't justified, even by the people most eager to prove such a link. And as a result, we don't have any reason to believe that reforming welfare will have anything other than a "modest" effect on the structure of American families. So, what variables do effect family structure? Even according to [2], the answer isn't welfare, but "stable, decent-paying work and good relationships are far more important predictors of marriage and childbearing decisions for such couples than are calculations related to social-welfare benefits." Which, incidentally, dovetails nicely with the article's conclusions: lack of access to stable, decent-paying work and a breakdown in social relationships. So the article may be "rife with misconceptions", as you say, but its root cause analysis appears closer to the mark than your assertions. And that's even true when we only consider evidence from people who are most aligned with your world-view! [1] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/3/welfare-disc... [2] https://ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/resources/welfare-and-marria... |