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by mabbo 3070 days ago
Considering the number of delays, push-backs and holds on this rocket, don't be surprised if it doesn't. And that's okay- once a rocket is more than a meter off the ground, it's either going to space or exploding, so caution is the right trait to have.

All that said, I'll still be watching live whenever it happens. If they pull this off, it'll open up a lot of new possibilities for the space industry.
2 comments
alexozer 3070 days ago
> once a rocket is more than a meter off the ground, it's either going to space or exploding

Unless you're a Grasshopper!

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anovikov 3070 days ago
Which new possibilities? BFR definitely will; FH seems to be just an incremental improvement: D-IVH level of capability combined with reusability, on a much cheaper price - but nothing which would enable doing something which wasn't done before.
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mabbo 3070 days ago
I mostly mean around the price point. A large portion of the cost of the ISS was launching it- $450m per Space Shuttle launch, dozens of launches to get all the components up.

If we wanted to replace the ISS today (or double it's size), the FH could bring the price point down considerably.

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mactunes 3070 days ago
Doesn't it have much higer payload to LEO and GTO though? It's much more than D-IVH payload if Wikipedia is to be believed:

FH: 63800kg LEO, 26700kg GTO

D-IVH: 28790kg LEO, 14220kg GTO

The Falcon 9 actually comes closer to the D-IVH in expendable mode than the D-IVH comes to the Falcon Heavy.

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indubitable 3070 days ago
The Falcon Heavy not only lifts vastly more (it will be the most powerful rocket excepting the Saturn V - which has not been in commission since 1973), but I think understating the scale of price difference is also not really reasonable.

The Falcon Heavy is looking at a cost of around $85 million. The Delta-4 Heavy starts at $400 million. Compare price per kg and it's quite insane. For low earth orbit that's $1,332/kg for a Falcon Heavy and $13,893/kg at the low end pricing for a Delta-4 Heavy. The Falcon 9 weighs in at $2,684/kg.

Each cut in price opens up possibilities that were not there before. Make it $1/kg and that'd be rather self evident, but each price decline opens up the doors for companies and individuals who previously were only being held back by price.

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anovikov 3070 days ago
Not correct calculation, as FH may be $85M only when reusing all 3 cores, for a big payload penalty.
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anovikov 3070 days ago
In reusable mode (with all 3 cores recovered), they will barely hit 18 or so tons to GTO, and probably just barely more than D-IVH (~7000kr or so) to direct GEO insertion.

Much more when expended, but not so much when reused.

Could still launch double shots of heavy comsats as Ariane 5 launch heavy + light, though.

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