Considering the number of delays, push-backs and holds on this rocket, don't be surprised if it doesn't. And that's okay- once a rocket is more than a meter off the ground, it's either going to space or exploding, so caution is the right trait to have.
All that said, I'll still be watching live whenever it happens. If they pull this off, it'll open up a lot of new possibilities for the space industry.
Which new possibilities? BFR definitely will; FH seems to be just an incremental improvement: D-IVH level of capability combined with reusability, on a much cheaper price - but nothing which would enable doing something which wasn't done before.
I mostly mean around the price point. A large portion of the cost of the ISS was launching it- $450m per Space Shuttle launch, dozens of launches to get all the components up.
If we wanted to replace the ISS today (or double it's size), the FH could bring the price point down considerably.
The Falcon Heavy not only lifts vastly more (it will be the most powerful rocket excepting the Saturn V - which has not been in commission since 1973), but I think understating the scale of price difference is also not really reasonable.
The Falcon Heavy is looking at a cost of around $85 million. The Delta-4 Heavy starts at $400 million. Compare price per kg and it's quite insane. For low earth orbit that's $1,332/kg for a Falcon Heavy and $13,893/kg at the low end pricing for a Delta-4 Heavy. The Falcon 9 weighs in at $2,684/kg.
Each cut in price opens up possibilities that were not there before. Make it $1/kg and that'd be rather self evident, but each price decline opens up the doors for companies and individuals who previously were only being held back by price.
In reusable mode (with all 3 cores recovered), they will barely hit 18 or so tons to GTO, and probably just barely more than D-IVH (~7000kr or so) to direct GEO insertion.
Much more when expended, but not so much when reused.
Could still launch double shots of heavy comsats as Ariane 5 launch heavy + light, though.
It's been on the launch pad for weeks, and had a successful static test. Space-X has to launch it soon or tilt it back down and take it away.
Although the Falcon Heavy is almost as big as the Saturn V, the launch setup is far simpler. It's lifted into vertical position at the pad. No vertical assembly building, no crawler-transporter. That's a big improvement. Takes some extra structural strength, which costs some payload, of course.
It's been up and down several times over the past few weeks. It only takes a couple hours to move it in or out.
The fact that Falcon 9/Heavy only support horizontal integration is a bot of an issue for some payloads (particularly those with people, or big optics). SpaceX will be adding vertical integration (the ability to mount the payload after the rocket is vertical) to its pad at LC-39A.
Are they? I was under the impression that crew can be loaded via the Crew Access Arm with the rocket vertical, but Dragon would still be integrated horizontally.
It also prevents them from launching payloads that require vertical integration (can make the design of satellites a bit more complicated if they have sensitive bits)
I'm a little worried about the two nearly synchronized landings not far from each other. Any interference between them and... well, we'd get a fireworks show.
Oh MAN this is exciting! And I realize it's the first Falcon launch in some time where no one is confident it won't blow up. The Falcon 9's record of flights and landings in 2017 were so consistent it almost started to feel "normal". But not anymore!
I sure wish I could see this one in person. Maybe one of the later Falcon Heavy flights once the hype has made the tickets more accessible and affordable. Heck, last year I was able to get to see a Falcon 9 launch for no additional cost beyond admission, so maybe it won't even be that long.
On HN, there's no harm in simply waiting until a thing happens.
https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22announcement%20of%20an%20an...