[Aloha]

How does it make sense that Tesla could be worth several Fords, or General Motors in ten years?

The automotive market is stable, something on the order of 80 million cars a year, and I don't see Tesla vanquishing one of the incumbents either.

I guess my argument is that an Electric Car is not a whole new category of vehicle (like a flying autonomous car might), anymore than diesel cars are looked as a separate market than gasoline ones. Whereas Google created an entirely new category of advertising, that didn't even really exist before they arrived and the market grew by two or three orders of magnitude.

[sumedh]

> I don't see Tesla vanquishing one of the incumbents either.

People didn't see that RIM and Nokia would be destroyed either.

[Aloha]

Both Nokia and RIM were vanquished because they failed to invest in their future - the big three are investing, and buying technology companies to fill in what doesnt make sense to build themselves.

[sumedh]

Nokia was doing that as well (pretty sure RIM would be too).

Just because you are buying new tech does not automatically mean you will succeed.

[Aloha]

In this case, I see no big paradigm shift that would presuppose me that any of the big global auto manufacturers would go away.

Building good cars, is a game of logistics and supply chain, something Tesla is largely still learning - the thing about building a good electric car is, it only changes one aspect of an otherwise concept, and you can buy the technology you need for that.

RIM, Nortel and Nokia, are not good example cases, because they didnt loose on their ability to manufacture shit - and Tesla likely will.

[sumedh]

We can keep on arguing back and forth on this but in the end I wont bet against Elon.

If you are sure what the future holds perhaps you should short Tesla.

[Aloha]

I wont bet against him either - but I wont bet on him either - and thats where I sit. I wish him all the best, but history has seen others try, and fail.

[razorunreal]

Don't think about the cars, look at the charging network. I think it's plausible that all the big car companies realise that nobody will buy their electric models unless they license Tesla's charging infrastructure. They can try to replicate that infrastructure but they are already behind, and it would be very painful to do if nobody is buying your cars while you build it out. So there's your (literal) network effect.

[dirtyaura]

I assume battery sales for energy producers will play a big role in Elon’s plans. Is he right? Maybe, if there is political will to fight climate change.

[Aloha]

If batteries go like you suppose they will, they will quickly become a race to the bottom, battery packs are not terribly complex to make.