Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by matthewbauer 3075 days ago
Interesting thoughts but I think "the sum of transaction fees people will spend in the future" is better as a value for mining (after rewards go to 0). "Holders" really aren't wanting anything to do with transactions.

My Bitcoin valuation:

Bitcoin is worth as much as it costs to move to another blockchain.

That's the "first-mover advantage" basically and I'm afraid it's much closer to $200 million than $200 billion.
1 comments
Changu 3075 days ago
That seems to imply that the BTC market cap is the result of speculation. Of people holding BTC because they think some greater fool will buy them later.

Personally I believe in efficient markets. I think the $200B is the best guess the market came up for the intrinsic value of BTC. Independent of speculation.

My feeling is similar to yours though. That BTCs value is closer to $200m then to $200B.

link