[ghaff]

>not useful for decisions like this which are made by a small group of people

I'm not sure that's quite true. For example, a Wisdom of the Crowds consensus approach can do really well in picking Academy Awards winners for example.

It's not immediately obvious that you can't take the same approach here. The bigger issue is probably that, while with the Academy Awards experienced pickers can bring a fair amount of historical perspective about the types of things that win, precursor awards, etc. in this case:

- There's no track record to look at

- No one outside of the people involved know what's going on behind the scenes

- No one knows how Bezos & company are really thinking about this, what they really value, etc.

So in the end, the crowd has so little real information to go on, any Wisdom of the crowds is going to be incredibly noisy. The wisdom of the crowds assumes everyone is not just throwing a random dart at a map.