[amarkov]

Approximately every cryptocurrency buyer hopes for massive gains in the short to medium term. I don't think I've seen a single article saying "This ICO is going to generate consistent 9% returns, that's better than an index fund!"

Because of that, I don't think the possibility of the bubble popping can be built into the cost in the way you're implying. If you think there's a 20% chance your investment will dectuple and a 80% chance you'll be wiped out, you can split the difference to find your expected value. But since none of the market participants believe the current value is the long-term value, eventually it has to land one way or the other.