[sulam]

Wait, we are supposed to ignore transaction costs? I kept waiting for them to be factored in, but it never happened. I have a simple reason for the 15% number — you need to make ~ that much to be breaking even!

Humans have strong loss aversion and it’s common to come across properties where the offer price is clearly set at a point where the sellers will only be making their money back. You can make fair offers in this situation but we had them declined every time. This was most evident during the 2008-2010 housing bust when we had to look for 18 months for a house that was fairly priced — and after we bought, we got two calls from people we’d made offers to — offers which they declined — asking if we were still interested in buying at our offered price! In the case of one house I tracked, they ended up selling at over 10% below what we’d offered them!

Combine that with the lack of any kind of data on houses that didn’t sell, and I would take this analysis with a hefty nugget of salt.

[faisalkhalid80]

You're right, I should do the math on trxn costs in my next update - the main ones are stamp duty on purchase and broker fees on sale. The minor ones are moving costs and legal fees on buying and selling. Capex I'll have to ignore because I have no data on this.

Still, if you assume the broker got paid say 1.5%-2.0%, the stamp duty was 3.5-4.0%, there's still a sizeable margin in between.

[sulam]

I don’t know UK laws, but you also get dinged in the US on property taxes (pay half a year), home insurance (can’t close without it), HOA fees ($500 selling our house this year despite our HOA being otherwise meaningless), warranty (not consistently required) and various local costs that are associated with the municipality or state — not to mention mortgages are deliberately designed to make their money even if you pay them early.

Again, I’ve never bought/sold in the UK, but in the US you could easily see $100K in costs on a transaction of ~$2M, and the percentages will go up as you move down market.

[moocow01]

Your missing another big one which is the cost to hold the house. If you're an average flipper that investor money is going to cost you about 1% per month of the purchase price so you can probably assume another 3% or so there.

After that you need to factor in your time as the flipper (time to do the purchase analysis, acquire the property, fixup the property, market the property, sell the property). Ultimately for flippers a 15% spread between purchase and sale would usually be a sizeable loss