Hard to determine if he lost confidence in "his vision" vs "current + future vision".
In his place, having lost direct control, I'd be tempted to cash out early solely because my influence was so diminished. Not because I was 100% sure the new direction wasn't right.
So I can't tell if this is an admission that Uber is over valued, or just a risk management decision around losing more direct control.
True. But by cashing out the maximum possible amount, this is far more than a hedge. In your scenario, I would cash out some but would have confidence in the strength of the business that I created... unless I didn't.
In reality, I'm at a loss as to why anyone would join Uber right now. They cannot be still attracting the best talent, especially in the autonomous vehicle space. And I've seen no evidence that the current ride sharing business is defensible, particularly once you account for the equity infusions that subsidize that business.
The value has already been cut in half from the peak raise, however him selling shares isn't a bad outlook for company.
He's no longer CEO, part of the deal is he won't be chairman, he will be for all intents and purposes not involved with the business and at arms length so why not cash out $1B dollars and go live your life instead of stewing waiting for something to happen.
Is there more value to be created? Perhaps and very likely. But I think Travis just wants to close this chapter as quickly as possible and move on.
Certainly to have $1-2B in the bank changes your life completely and he will go figure out what all of this means for him now.
Perhaps someone well versed in these matters could chime in but the somewhat bigger question is whether its a good indicator even for the economy at large, since Uber's reach is quite global.
Just today:
One of the biggest surprises of the U.S. stock market’s
relentless rally is how many individual investors have
run away from it.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 25000 for
the first time on Thursday, punctuating a record-setting
period nearly unmatched in U.S. history. Yet throughout
the nearly nine-year surge in share prices, individual
investors have continued to yank money out of funds that
own U.S. stocks.
Nearly $1 trillion has been pulled from retail-investor
mutual funds that target U.S. stocks since the start of
2012, according to EPFR Global, a fund-tracking firm.
Over that same period through Wednesday, the S&P 500
soared 116% and, along with the Dow Industrials and Nasdaq
Composite Index, rose to 190 all-time highs.[1]
[1]
As Dow Tops 25000, Individual Investors Sit It Out
Since 2012, $1 trillion has been pulled from retail-
investor mutual funds that target U.S. stocks
In his place, having lost direct control, I'd be tempted to cash out early solely because my influence was so diminished. Not because I was 100% sure the new direction wasn't right.
So I can't tell if this is an admission that Uber is over valued, or just a risk management decision around losing more direct control.