[bedhead]

I think this has a good chance of being a good long-term investment for one simple reason. Spotify has something that few companies have but all dream of: pricing power.

The other week, my kids were watching TV and my wife and I were in the kitchen and one of them yelled out, "Mom, something popped up on Netflix saying the price is going up. What should I do?" My wife and I said the same thing instantly: "Just hit okay." We didn't even know what it went up to...hell I don't even know what it cost before. Pricing power is a helluva thing. Why does Netflix have this power? Because people love it. Because it's a part of their lives. Because people are habit-forming. And Spotify fits this mold pretty well...maybe not as strong as Netflix but still impressive. I think there are millions of Spotify customers out there [raising hang] who couldn't fathom going back to pre-2011...it probably makes them hyperventilate. Spotify could probably charge 2-3x what they charge today and I'm really not sure it would affect subscriber counts.

Remember a couple years ago when Amazon raised the annual Prime fee from $80 to $100 and no one cared? Yeah, kinda like that.

Buying from an oligopoly probably won't matter much here. Apple quickly blew those businesses up in the 2000's. The other problem is that the music industry suffers (like many other industries) from the 80/20 rule: a small group of artists are responsible for the vast majority of the profits. (Actually, I think the music biz is even more lopsided) It creates a weird dynamic for the labels and ultimately gives purchasers like Spotify more power. Consumers don't know anything about music labels - maybe not even their names - but man do they LOVE Spotify. Those kinds of things tend to be good investments.

[mcintyre1994]

Why wouldn't everyone just go to Apple/Google Music if Spotify raised their prices? None of them have exclusive content or features that rival Netflix's exclusive library, I don't see why Spotify have any meaningful pricing power. I'm one of those people who hit OK this year when Netflix raised their price, but I'll immediately leave Spotify if they raise their prices and the competition don't - they have nothing sticky for me.

[bedhead]

Same reason people don't move from Amazon to Wal-Mart, or Apple to Android, or Netflix to...I don't even know what. Spotify is objectively better as a service, people love it, and we are creatures of habit. There are other factors like social and all the playlists you've created. Besides, people derive value from things based on more than price alone. You might not see why they have pricing power but the fact is they have over 60 million paying subscribers so they must be doing something right. And is the ~$10/month meaningful for any of those subscribers? Probably not at all. I mean, you're going to tell me that people line up to buy a $1,000 iPhone which costs 25% more than a previous model but perhaps an extra $2/month for Spotify (#12 app on App Store - right in between Gmail app and Uber) is going to cause an exodus? I'll take the other side of that one.

[mbrzuzy]

Good point.

If Spotify started charging $15 instead of $9.99 I wouldn't care, I would still pay. They are simply the best music streaming service out there IMO.

I payed for Google Music for a bit a while ago and I hated it and switch to Spotify. The experience was awful. I'm also pretty sure that Google Music rips audio from Youtube in certain cases which makes the audio quality terrible.

[TheHegemon]

> I payed for Google Music for a bit a while ago and I hated it and switch to Spotify.

It's always so interesting how people can have similar experiences but come out with completely different perspectives. For me, the Google Play Radio feature is the most important thing they have. It's like a Pandora that doesn't play you the same three songs over and over. When I would try and use the radio feature on Spotify it would play music that was not even close to the original other than it maybe being in the "alternative" category.

[remir]

Spotify's strength is their recommendation engine, IMO. It's really good.

[jschwartzi]

For me it's the concerts listing, which shows you when an artist is in town and how to buy tickets.

[thinkmassive]

Spotify eventually makes great recommendations. The Daily Mixes (I think there's always 6) consistently deliver music I enjoy while maintaining a much better "genre theme" than anything I ever heard from Pandora.

I say eventually, because it's conditional on you using the service to seek out a variety of music you enjoy, and also on providing feedback via thumbsup/add-to-library actions. Try this for a month and you'll get good recommendations that continue improving over time.

[thinkmassive]

I also tried Google Music for a while before leaving it. They enticed me by offering to host all my MP3s, so I could stream my entire collection to any of my devices.

Later I found out they would use user uploads in their catalog (when legally able), so it sounds more likely that someone uploaded a bad copy that was shared, rather than Google ripping music from youtube.

[bllguo]

I see much less differentiating spotify from its competitors, than in the case of amazon/anyone else or apple/android. Objectively better.. maybe? Don't really see it, personally. But say that's true - what's stopping Google or Apple from investing heavily in their offerings and crushing spotify in the process? Again - what's the moat here?

Can't help but feel that you're projecting your personal love for spotify onto others.

[BinaryIdiot]

> Same reason people don't move from Amazon to Wal-Mart, or Apple to Android, or Netflix

The big difference is Apple has its own ecosystem, Amazon and Wal-Mart sell a lot of different stuff, Netflix has a TON of original shows to differentiate itself from Hulu and others.

Spotify? They literally offer the identical catalog of music as everyone else. Literally. Sure their apps may be slightly better but who cares? If they raised their prices why not move to the more native solution your platform offers for cheaper? Google Music, Apple Music, Microsoft Groove (lol), Amazon Music; they all offer the same damn thing.

[remir]

Groove Music is literally dead. Play Music is buried on the Play Store somewhere as if Google doesn't want people to access it. Seriously, I had to do a Google search to find it. Its UI is not as good as Spotify (in my opinion) and the service doesn't seem like a priority for Google.

I haven't tried Apple Music and Amazon.

Spotify on the other hand has a decent desktop app available on Windows, macOS and even Linux. Their mobile app is great, too. They have brand power, a UI that a lot of people like and their AI-based playlist engine is amazing.

[bedhead]

Then why is Spotify so freakin popular? Why do they have more than double the subscribers as Apple Music which arguably has major advantages (resources, pre-installed, etc)?

[BinaryIdiot]

First mover advantage? Spotify has been around for many, many years before just about anyone else that matters. Since they're all basically the same thing why would you change after new ones came out? I kept with Google Music for the longest time before moving to spotify only because of the family deal (which, if I remember correctly, came before Google's deal and really the only reason why I ever switched).

[bedhead]

Sorry, not buying it. You don't grow to 60 million paying subs on a generic product that has little more than a first mover advantage. Their subscriber count grew 50% from Sep 16 through Jul 17 alone when everyone was competing aggressively. It grew a ton after Apple Music came out. It grew a ton after Google Music came out. It grew a ton after Amazon Music came out.

Maybe, just maybe, Spotify is actually really great and customers love it.

This reminds me of people debating Apple vs Android circa 2012.

[pducks32]

I was agreeing with you as I read these replies but then I thought of what would actually happen if Apple Music raised their prices. I think I would stay. All the music and likes/dislikes that it has about me are a pain to move. And also I really value Beats 1 and that is worth the price raise to me alone. So maybe we really are creatures of habit.

[rayshan]

I'm also a subscriber and love Beats 1, but I believe Beats 1 is free. Sometimes I wonder if I should just unsubscribe and listen to Beats 1 all day.

[charlesdm]

It just works -- pretty much exactly the way I want it to. I've been a Spotify user for 5 years, have occasionally tried competing services, but I've never cancelled my subscription. Even if they'd double the price, I wouldn't cancel my account.

[eropple]

I had a six month trial of Google Music and YouTube Red, thinking I'd go to that instead of Spotify.

I canceled the Google one because changing over was too much effort.

[Fnoord]

Are there scripts to aid changing services to convert playlists etc? That'd increase competition and decrease lock-in.

If I change password manager there are scripts. If I change browser there's addons for the other browser as well. [...]

[eropple]

I assume, but here's the thing: it's ten bucks a month and I don't watch YouTube on devices without ad-blockers very often. It's not worth my time to think about it.

[namlem]

I have all my play lists and albums saved in Spotify. Is there a tool that let's you export all that stuff to another service? If not, then switching would not at all be worth all the hassle just to save a couple bucks a month.

[TylerH]

Because Apple and Google Music suck? And non Apple fanboys would never go to Apple music, Apple customers are probably already there, and people don't want to give all their business to the big giants which do evil things? (Not that Spotify doesn't do evil things). Spotify also lets you catalog your own tracks from local drives... does Apple Music or Google Music let you do that?

[andyhmltn]

>And non Apple fanboys would never go to Apple music,

I did. Apple Music still has one major selling point: They own iTunes so anything on iTunes is on AM. For spotify and other streaming services you still have to wait a couple hours to a few days for something to appear on the other streaming services

That being said I moved back to Spotify after a year because of how awful and buggy the UI in AM is. If Apple Music could improve the UI and fix the bugs that have been about for years they could really do well. But I have my doubts as to whether that will ever happen

[ErikVandeWater]

>The other week, my kids were watching TV and my wife and I were in the kitchen and one of them yelled out, "Mom, something popped up on Netflix saying the price is going up. What should I do?" My wife and I said the same thing instantly: "Just hit okay." We didn't even know what it went up to...hell I don't even know what it cost before.

You and your wife both know (subconsciously at least) that people will switch to HBO, Hulu, or any other number of services if Netflix gets unreasonably expensive. It's broke college students that buy Netflix the most, and they would have to get rid of their biggest set of subscribers to raise prices significantly.

[bedhead]

First of all, the "broke college students" quip is wrong. Generally, Netflix's subscribers are fairly well off (in the US anyway). Second, even if that was the case, I can assure you that said college students would suck it up and pay the extra $5-10/month. This extra cost isn't putting anyone into bankruptcy. Netflix has raised prices several times and subscribers keep increasing. And people are just getting more addicted to it. And the competitive advantages is getting larger. And the (good) alternatives are getting fewer.

"Unreasonably" is the key word there. What is unreasonable? I think that for the vast majority of subscribers, they get FAR more than $10/month in value (or whatever it costs). Cable costs something like $100/month and it's arguably far worse of a product. Is $50/month for Netflix unreasonable? For some I suppose, but for most I'd be willing to bet no. Remember Ballmer saying no one would pay $500 for a phone? :)

[qznc]

> Ballmer saying no one would pay $500 for a phone?

And he is right. A smartphone is more than a phone. How can Netflix be more than a video player? One way seems to be to become a producer.

Back to Spotify: How to be more than a music player?

[majormajor]

One way is to be a ubiquitous one. I think the Apple TV is the only major omission for Spotify's footprint? Amazon Echos integrate with Spotify; I think Google Home does too. I don't think you can say that very often for the reverse. People do notice this sort of lock-in, and start noticing that their frends have Spotify and can run it pretty much everywhere, and so Spotify is the first one people check out. Generally people aren't super price-sensitive at this price level, outside of students, and students get some huge discount deals from Spotify.

Roku is the opposite side of the same strategy: everyone keeps buying them even though their interfaces and app ports are generally less polished, the hardware often less capable, than much of the competition. It's offset by being simple and well-understood (ever see someone try to use that Apple TV remote touchpad for the first time?) and by running pretty much every TV/streaming app out there.

[jnevelson]

Ignorant question (I'm not very familiar with the music business): what do the labels provide to the artists - why do they need to sign with Time Warner/Sony/etc at all, rather than just releasing their music to all distribution channels (Spotify/Apple Music/etc) themselves? I understand for smaller artists the labels can help provide advertising to them, but the larger, well-known stars you mention seem like they should have leverage to negotiate themselves?

[whiddershins]

PR and lots of logistical support. Much of that logistical support is also drawbridge over a moat that makes exposure on a large scale basically impossible without access and backing.

The idea that a person can create and maintain a fan base of millions without all that is attractive but infeasible.

[dragonwriter]

> The idea that a person can create and maintain a fan base of millions without all that is attractive but infeasible.

Chance the Rapper might disagree (as, to a lesser extent, might Jonathan Coulton.)

[amigoingtodie]

Like Louis CK?

[richardknop]

Not sure it’s a good comparison. Comedy is a bit different animal than music. I’m not sure big stars like Rihanna, Taylor Swift etc would be able to become such big stars and maintain their fandom and deal with all the logistics of TV/radio promotion & deals, concerts, brand awareness and such alone without big studios doing that for them. I am not up to date on music but are there examples of big international pop stars who bootstrapped their superstar career without being promoted and pushed by one of the big three studios?

[majormajor]

He was a writer for established media titans like Letterman and Conan, with other fairly-typical industry projects as well, with a TV show on a major cable network, before he really blew up outside of comedy insider circles, AFAIK.

[ikurei]

You seem to assume the business of a musician is to publish music and distribute it.

Artists also make a lot of their money by licensing their music, or concerts, which are big logistical problems full of middle men. Big labels also give you a lot of PR and visibility.

[dralley]

Netflix can do that only because they have their own content with a large following. Unless Spotify feels like getting a bunch of popular artists to distribute with them, they're screwed.

[zjaffee]

This is also magnified by the fact that they have buying power in a way Netflix does not. Netflix has had to product a ton of their own content to retain users, I'm increasingly considering leaving Netflix in favor of Hulu simply because they have far more content from traditional TV channels (from my perspective Netflix is just becoming a worse HBO).

Spotify on the other hand, doesn't have the issue of content being removed from it in the same way. Additionally due to the legacy of radio, there is a generally accepted amount that you should pay per play. This continues to the fact that spotify could over time expand into other areas of the music industry such as being a platform for artists to sell merchandise and concert tickets which is the most viable way for small artists to make money.