[Robotbeat]

People had the same questions about the Model X, the Model S before that, and even the Roadster before that. In every case, Tesla eventually was able to get production up and deliver. Tesla has no problem producing enough S and Xes.

The question is not "whether" but "when."

[ploxiln]

To be fair, Roadster production was never really "up". I'm not sure demand was at any point satisfied before the model was discontinued. Less than 2,500 were produced.

[abritinthebay]

which is a shame, because it was a lovely car.

[wils1245]

The question is, “can Tesla build a production pipeline before its ability to raise money ends?”

In other words “whether” and “when” aren’t different questions in this case.

[Robotbeat]

I think people are underestimating the runway Tesla has, here. Tesla didn't even die in 2008. Now, they have a huge customer base, two other high-end car lines that are themselves doing well, and an enormous amount of goodwill plus a big moat (for charging in particular, at least in the US). Not only that, but SpaceX is doing fantastically well unlike in 2008.

I think the hardcore bears are just plain wrong, here. I don't know whether or not Tesla is over-valued (above my pay grade, and I'm not invested anyway), but it's hard to make the case that Tesla is worse off now than in 2008.

[wils1245]

>>I think the hardcore bears are just plain wrong, here. I don't know whether or not Tesla is over-valued

The misconception I think a lot of Tesla fans have is that great product = great business. How much do you think Tesla's business is worth? A billion dollars? A trillion? Probably not the latter, and if they depended on that valuation to continue to do business (by virtue of access to continued investment), it wouldn't matter how great their cars are.

Their actual market cap is 50 billion dollars, more than Ford, and they will need to raise more money to continue operations. Ford makes 500 times more cars than them (based on some quick Googling, .3% market share of cars vs 15% for Ford). So if you're thinking Tesla is not overvalued, you have to think that Tesla will acquire a truly massive chunk of the car market, at the expense of well funded incumbents who have a head start in many aspects of car manufacturing and branding.

My point is that whether or not Tesla is overvalued is as important as whether or not their cars are great. I think their cars are great, but I'm a Tesla bear because I think expecting them to justify even a tenth of their valuation is unlikely.

[nojvek]

People also forget that a Tesla has a magnitude fewer moving parts than a ICE(internal combustion engine) car.

The big issue in scaling up is making enough battery packs. Which is a question of ‘when’.

Once they have a monopoly on cheapest battery packs and enough superchargers, a Tesla model 3 is cheaper to maintain, cheaper to run and similar price to an ICE auto, probably better performance.

Unless they fuck it up, BE battery electric is the way to go. Energy to motion, Tesla does more than 100MPG.