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by Oletros 3090 days ago
> . if our past predictions were correct then we should be living on Venus right now which obviously we're not so we must need different hyperparameters

I would like to know hat models showed runaway warming and were publishing because I don't remember anything like that.

1 comments

I was talking about backtesting of the models to see if they would have predicted the past correctly. I.e. You run the model from 1970 to today and measure how close the model prediction is with the actual measurements. If it's too far off then obviously the model is wrong and changes are made to try to improve it.
> It was very important to the other researches that the models produce the 'right' predictions which at the time was runaway global warming. When the models didn't show this it was presumed that the models were wrong

Sorry, you have claimed that the scientists wanted the 'right' predictions, that was runaway warming.

I repeat, can you link to any scientists saying in 2006-2007 that the most probable outcome was runaway warming?