[aetherson]

> Most buyers of U.S. dollars buy it for non-speculative purposes.

Sure! I didn't say, "except for perhaps those who buy it," I said, "for those who invest in it."

> Out of those who speculate on it, most do so in tandem with buying bonds and borrowing. Most FX is a cousin of rates trading more than hoping your currency goes up.

I agree, but don't feel like we would split these kinds of hairs when talking about other kinds of investment. Like, do we consider shorts and arbitrage and other more sophisticated forms of dabbling in financial markets to be "not investment" because they aren't "buy a stock; hope it goes up"? Perhaps when in technical discussion, but in common parlance, I feel like this is a distinction driven by emotion.

[coldtea]

>Sure! I didn't say, "except for perhaps those who buy it," I said, "for those who invest in it."

Well, if those are statistically insignificant outliers, then "nobody" still stands, as it's a colloquialism for "very few people" or "only stupid ones" -- it doesn't really mean "absolutely no one in the history of the world".

Except if you mean people like Soros and co, speculating on national currencies (but those are few and far between too)

[njarboe]

Those few and far between opportunities is what the consistently great investors shoot for. I think I might agree with Warren Buffet and his view of investing. If you are a professional investor, patience and rare (every few years) big bets when things look very good. Otherwise, full market index funds.